Bitcoin Exchange Rate History Graph July 2020

Lines of Navigation | Monthly Portfolio Update - July 202

Our little systems have their day;
They have their day and cease to be
- Tennyson, In Memoriam A.H.H.
This is my forty-fourth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
Total portfolio value: $1 800 119 (+$34 376 or 1.9%)
Asset allocation
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
[Chart]
Comments
The portfolio has substantially increased this month, continuing the recovery in portfolio value since March.
The strong portfolio growth of over $34 000, or 1.9 per cent, returns the value of the portfolio close to that achieved at the end of February this year.
[Chart]
This month there was minimal movement in the value of Australian and global equity holdings, There was, however, a significant lift of around 6 per cent in the value of gold exchange traded fund units, as well as a rise in the value of Bitcoin holdings.
These movements have pushed the value of gold holdings to their highest level so far on the entire journey. Their total value has approximately doubled since the original major purchases across 2009 to 2015.
For most of the past year gold has functioned as a portfolio stabiliser, having a negative correlation to movements in Australian equities (of around -0.3 to -0.4). As low and negative bond rates spread across the world, however, the opportunity cost of holding gold is reduced, and its potential diversification benefits loom larger.
The fixed income holdings of the portfolio also continued to fall beneath the target allocation, making this question of what represents a defensive (or negatively correlated to equity) asset far from academic.
This steady fall is a function of the slow maturing of Ratesetter loans, which were largely made between 2015 and 2017. Ratesetter has recently advised of important changes to its market operation, and placed a fixed maximum cap on new loan rates. By replacing market set rates with maximum rates, the peer-to-peer lending platform appears to be shifting to more of a 'intermediated' role in which higher past returns (of around 8 to 9 per cent) will now no longer be possible.
[Chart]
The expanding value of gold and Bitcoin holdings since January last year have actually had the practical effect of driving new investments into equities, since effectively for each dollar of appreciation, for example, my target allocation to equities rises by seven dollars.
Consistent with this, investments this month have been in the Vanguard international shares exchange-traded fund (VGS) using Selfwealth. This has been directed to bring my actual asset allocation more closely in line with the target split between Australian and global shares.
Fathoming out: franking credits and portfolio distributions
Earlier last month I released a summary of portfolio income over the past half year. This, like all before it, noted that the summary was prepared on a purely 'cash' basis, reflecting dividends actually paid into a bank account, and excluding consideration of franking credits.
Franking credits are credits for company tax paid at the company level, which can be passed to individual shareholders, reducing their personal tax liability. They are not cash, but for a personal investor with tax liabilities they can have equivalent value. This means that comparing equity returns to other investments without factoring these credits can produce a distorted picture of an investor's final after-tax return.
In past portfolio summaries I have noted an estimate for franking credits in footnotes, but updating the value for this recently resulted in a curiosity about the overall significance of this neglected element of my equity returns.
This neglect resulted from my perception earlier in the journey that they represented a marginal and abstract factor, which could effectively be assumed away for the sake of simplicity in reporting.
This is not a wholly unfair view, in the sense that income physically received and able to be spent is something definably different in kind than a notional 'pre-payment' credit for future tax costs. Yet, as the saying goes, because the prospect of personal tax is as certain as extinction from this world, in some senses a credit of this kind can be as valuable as a cash distribution.
Restoring the record: trends and drivers of franking credits
To collect a more accurate picture of the trends and drivers of franking credits I relied on a few sources - tax statements, records and the automatic franking credit estimates that the portfolio tracking site Sharesight generates.
The chart below sets out both the level and major different sources of franking credits received over the past eleven years.
[Chart]
From this chart some observations can be made.
The key reason for the rapid growth over the recent decade has been the increased investment holdings in Australian equities. As part of the deliberate rebalancing towards Australian shares across the past two years, these holdings have expanded.
The chart below sets out the total value of Australian shares held over the comparable period.
[Chart]
As an example, at the beginning of this record Australian equities valued at around $276 000 were held. Three years later, the holding were nearly three times larger.
The phase of consistently increasing the Australian equities holding to meet its allocated weighting is largely complete. This means that the period of rapid growth seen in the past few years is unlikely to repeat. Rather, growth will revert to be in proportion to total portfolio growth.
Close to cross-over: the credit card records
One of the most powerful initial motivators to reach financial independence was the concept of the 'cross over' point in Vicki Robins and Joe Dominguez's Your Money or Your Life. This was the point at which monthly expenses are exceeded by investment income.
One of the metrics I have traced is this 'cross-over' point in relation to recorded credit card expenses. And this point is now close indeed.
Expenditures on the credit card have continued their downward trajectory across the past month. The three year rolling average of monthly credit card spending remains at its lowest point over the period of the journey. Distributions on the same basis now meet over 99 per cent of card expenses - with the gap now the equivalent of less than $50 per month.
[Chart]
The period since April of the achievement of a notional and contingent form of financial independence has continued.
The below chart illustrates this temporary state, setting out the the extent to which to which portfolio distributions (red) cover estimated total expenses (green), measured month to month.
[Chart]
An alternative way to view the same data is to examine the degree to which total expenses (i.e. fixed payments not made on credit card added to monthly credit card expenses) are met by distributions received.
An updated version of this is seen in the chart below.
[Chart]
Interestingly, on a trend basis, this currently identifies a 'crossing over' point of trend distributions fully meeting total expenditure from around November 2019. This is not conclusive, however, as the trend curve is sensitive to the unusual COVID-19 related observations of the first half of this year, and could easily shift further downward if normal expense patterns resume.
One issue this analysis raises is what to do with the 'credit card purchases' measure reported below. This measure is designed to provide a stylised benchmark of how close the current portfolio is to a target of generating the income required to meet an annual average credit card expenditure of $71 000.
The problem with this is that continued falling credit card spending means that average credit card spending is lower than that benchmark for all time horizons - measured as three and four year averages, or in fact taken as a whole since 2013. So the set benchmark may, if anything, be understating actual progress compared the graphs and data above by not reflecting changing spending levels.
In the past I have addressed this trend by reducing the benchmark. Over coming months, or perhaps at the end of the year, I will need to revisit both the meaning, and method, of setting this measure.
Progress
Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets
Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 82.6% 111.5%
Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 100.7% 136.0%
Total expenses – $89 000 pa 80.7% 109.0%
Summary
One of the most challenging aspects of closing in on a fixed numerical target for financial independence with risk assets still in place is that the updrafts and downdrafts of market movements can push the goal further away, or surprisingly close.
There have been long period of the journey where the total value of portfolio has barely grown, despite regular investments being made. As an example, the portfolio ended 2018 lower than it started the year. The past six months have been another such period. This can create a sense of treading water.
Yet amidst the economic devastation affecting real lives and businesses, this is an extremely fortunate position to be in. Australia and the globe are set to experience an economic contraction far more severe than the Global Financial Crisis, with a lesser capacity than previously for interest rates to cushion the impact. Despite similar measures being adopted by governments to address the downturn, it is not clear whether these are fit for purpose.
Asset allocation in this environment - of being almost suspended between two realities - is a difficult problem. The history of markets can tell us that just when assets seem most 'broken', they can produce outsized returns. Yet the problem remains that far from being surrounded by broken markets, the proliferation appears to be in bubble-like conditions.
This recent podcast discussion with the founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer provided a useful historical context to current financial conditions this month. One of the themes of the conversation was 'thinking the unthinkable', such as a return of inflation. Similar, this Hoover Institute video discussion, with a 'Back from the future' premise, provides some entertaining, informed and insightful views on the surprising and contingent nature of what we know to be true.
Some of our little systems may well have had their day, but what could replace them remains obscured to any observer.
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
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Bittrex Review: One of the First Crypto Exchanges| Final Part

Bittrex Review: One of the First Crypto Exchanges| Final Part

4. Transaction Fees

Transferring funds across the blockchain and withdrawing them from Bittrex costs a fee for customers, with the rate unique for every coin.
Bittrex Global charges no commission for deposits. Please keep in mind that some tokens or cash may be required to perform a transaction by a crypto coin or token’s community. Bittrex crypto exchange can’t keep away from it.
Every token or coin has a blockchain transaction fee that is built in it, and the Bittrex fee is a small amount to cover this charge. You can view the fee percentage for every coin or token by clicking Withdrawal near to the coin. There you will see a transaction fee you will be charged for withdrawing a specific coin or token.
In the example below, the withdrawal fee amounts to 1 USDT
https://preview.redd.it/209uz2p64zh51.jpg?width=974&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9ee9355c4d75d41931a3073b8a230bd1ffddaf08
The transaction fee for Bitcoin came to 0.00050000 BTC
https://preview.redd.it/vh7zbe884zh51.jpg?width=974&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e6293650b46a7e0ba661478bd2467471b8b213f9

5. Trading Fees

The fee schedule below provides the applicable rate based on the account's 30-Day Volume and if the order is a maker or taker.
Bittrex Global Fee30 Day Volume (USD)MakerTaker$0k - $50k0.2%0.2%$50k - $1M0.12%0.18%$1M - $10M0.05%0.15%$10M - $60M0.02%0.1%$60M+0%0.08%>$100MContact TAM representative
Trading expenses are incurred when an order is prepared by means of the Bittrex worldwide matching engine. While an order is being executed, the purchaser and the vendor are charged a rate primarily based on the order’s amount. The fee charged by Bittrex exchange is calculated by the formula amount * buy rate * fee. There aren't any charges for placing an order which is not being executed so far. Any portion of an unfinished order will be refunded completely upon order cancelation.
Prices vary depending on the currency pair, monthly trade volume, and whether the order is a maker or taker. Bittrex reserves the right to alternate fee quotes at any time, including offering various discounts and incentive packages.

Monthly Volume

Your buying and selling volume affects the fee you pay for every order. Our expenses are built to encourage customers who ensure liquidity in the Bittrex crypto exchange markets. Your buying and selling charges are reduced according to your trade volume for the last 30 years in dollars.
Bittrex calculates the 30-day value every day, updating every account's volume calculation and buying and selling charge between of 12:30 AM UTC and 01:30 AM UTC every day.
You can check your monthly trade volume by logging in and opening Account > My Activity.
https://preview.redd.it/n1djh2ob4zh51.jpg?width=974&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2eebb9c9ac63de207c4dd2e49bc45aeb53a8dec8

6. Withdrawing Funds

Withdrawing any type of funds is likewise simple. You can profit by buying and selling Bitcoin, Ether, or any other cryptocurrency.
You determine the crypto address—to which the amount will be credited—and the transaction amount. The withdrawal fee will be automatically calculated and shown right away.
After confirming the transaction, the finances will be sent to the specified addresses and all that you need to do is to wait for the community to confirm the transaction.
If the 2FA is enabled, then the user receives a special code (via SMS or application) to confirm the withdrawal.

7. How to Trade on Bittrex Global

Currency selling and buying transactions are performed using the Sell and Buy buttons, accordingly.
To begin with, the dealer selects a currency pair and sees a graph of the rate dynamics and different values for the pair.
Below the chart, there is a section with orders where the user can buy or sell a virtual asset.
To create an order, you just need to specify the order type, price, and quantity. And do not forget about the 0.25% trade fee whatever the quantity.
For optimum profit, stay with liquid assets as they can be quickly sold at a near-market rate effective at the time of the transaction. Bittrex offers no referral program; so buying and selling crypto is the easiest way to earn.
https://preview.redd.it/hopm6fih4zh51.jpg?width=1302&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=68c0aaae86f64c3e6b9d351c3df2a9c331f94038

Order Types

Bittrex helps you alternate Limit and Stop-Limit orders.
A limit order or a simple limit order is performed when the asset fee reaches—or even exceeds—the price the trader seeks. To execute such an order, it is required that there's a counter market order on the platform that has the identical fee as the limit order.

Differences between Limit Order and Stop Limit Order

A stop limit order is a mixture of a stop limit order and a limit order. In such an application, charges are indicated—a stop charge and the limit.

Stop Limit Order Purpose

https://preview.redd.it/hlxvy9ti4zh51.jpg?width=1141&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=064a77459a4dcb4555a885cbc56629aae10fc38b

Trade Terminal

Let’s discuss how you could trade conveniently with our service.
The key features include a user-friendly interface and precise currency pair statistics (timeframe graphs, network data, trade volumes, and so forth).
The platform’s top-notch advantage is handy, easy-to-analyze, customizable charts. There is also a column for quick switching between currency pairs and an order panel beneath the fee chart. Such an all-encompassing visual solution helps compare orders efficiently and in one place.
You can use the terminal in a day or night mode; when in the night mode, the icon in the upper-right corner changes and notice the Bittrex trading terminal in night mode is displayed. The main menu consists of 4 sections: Markets, Orders, Wallets, Settings.
Markets are the trade section. Bittrex allows handling over 270 currency pairs.
Orders. To see all open orders, go to OrdersOpen.
To see completed orders, go to OrdersCompleted.
Wallets. The Wallets tab displays many wallets for all cryptocurrencies supported by the exchange and the current balance of each of them.
After refilling the balance or creating a buy or sale order, you will see all actions in the section. Bittrex allows creating a separate wallet for every coin. Additionally, you can see how the coin price has changed, in terms of percentage, throughout the day.
Here’s what you can also do with your wallets:
  • Hide zero balances: hide currencies with zero balance
  • Green and red arrows: replenish balance/withdraw funds
  • Find: search for a cryptocurrency
The Settings section helps manage your account, verification, 2FA, password modification, API connection, and many more.

How to Sell

The process of selling crypto assets follows the same algorithm. The only difference is that after choosing the exchange direction, you need to initiate a Sell order. All the rest is similar: you select the order type, specify the quantity and price, and click Sell *Currency Name* (Sell Bitcoin in our case).
If you scroll the screen, the entire history of trades and orders will be displayed below.

LONG and SHORT

You can make a long deal or a short deal. Your choice depends on whether you expect an asset to fall or rise in price.
Long positions are a classic trading method. It concerns purchasing an asset to profit when its value increases. Long positions are carried out through any brokers and do not require a margin account. In this case, the trader’s account must have enough funds to cover the transaction.
Losses in a long position are considered to be limited; no matter when the trade starts, the price will not fall below zero with all possible errors. Short positions, in contrast, are used to profit from a falling market. A trader buys a financial instrument from a broker and sells it. After the price reaches the target level, the trader buys back the assets or buys them to pay off the initial debt to the broker.
A short position yields profit if the price falls, and it is considered unprofitable the price matches the asset value. Performing a short order requires a margin account as a trader borrows valuable assets from a broker to complete a transaction. Long transactions help gain from market growth; short from a market decline.

Trade via API

Bittrex also supports algorithmic trading through extensive APIs (application programming interface), which allows you to automate the trading process using third-party services.
To create an API key, the user must enable the two-factor authentication 2FA, verify their account, and log in to the site within 3 minutes.
If all the requirements of the system are fulfilled, you can proceed to generate the API key. Log in to your Bittrex account, click Settings. Find API Keys. Click Add new key (Create a new key).
Toggle on / off settings for READ INFO, TRADE, or WITHDRAW, depending on what functionality you want to use for our API key.
Click Save and enter the 2FA code from the authenticator → Confirm.
The secret key will be displayed only once and will disappear after the page is refreshed. Make sure you saved it!
To delete an API key, click X in the right corner for the key that you want to delete, then click Save, enter the 2FA code from the authenticator and click Confirm.

Bittrex Bot, a Trader’s Assistant

Robotized programs that appeared sometimes after the appearance of cryptocurrency exchanges save users from monotonous work and allow automating the trading process.
Bots for trading digital money work like all the other bots: they perform mechanical trading according to the preset parameters.
Currently, one of Bittrex’s most popular trading bots is Bittrex Flash Crash Buyer Bot that helps traders profit from altcoin volatility without missing the right moment.
The program monitors all the market changes in the market every second; also, it even can place an order in advance. The Bittrex bot can handle a stop loss—to sell a certain amount of currency when the rate changes in a favorable direction and reaches a certain level.

8. Secure Platform

Bittrex Global employs the most reliable and effective security technologies available. There are many cases of theft, fraud. It is no coincidence that the currency is compared to the Wild West, especially if we compare the 1800s when cowboys rushed to the West Coast of America to earn and start something new in a place that had no rules.
Cryptocurrency is still wild. One can earn and lose money fast. But Bittrex has a substantial security policy thanks to the team’s huge experience in security and development for companies such as Microsoft, Amazon, Qualys, and Blackberry.
The system employs an elastic, multi-stage holding strategy to ensure that the majority of funds are kept in cold storage for extra safety.
Bittrex Global also enables the two-factor authentication for all users and provides a host of additional security features to provide multiple layers of protection.
Bittrex cold wallet: https://bitinfocharts.com/en/bitcoin/address/385cR5DM96n1HvBDMzLHPYcw89fZAXULJP

How to Pass IP Verification

To ensure higher security of your Bittrex Global account, the system requires all users to approve each new IP address through an email confirmation. This IP verification procedure is required every time you attempt to log in from a new IP Address.
Confirming your IP address.
https://preview.redd.it/rnl730z75zh51.jpg?width=971&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bd13fba0a844ab01cadc40003f5ea5de7439cbf9
The new IP address must be confirmed from the device that you are using to access Bittrex Global. This means that you must follow the CLICK HERE TO LOGIN link in an email on the device that you want to use to access your account.
https://preview.redd.it/tq9eje795zh51.jpg?width=607&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=160b2ebfd1b9e0a287d4d2b99017dd45518ef2f7
To ensure even more security, Bittrex Global supports whitelisting of IP addresses and Crypto addresses. These two features can help protect the account in the event of credentials or API key loss.

How to Add IP Address to Whitelist

By setting one or more whitelisted addresses, you are telling Bittrex Global to only authorize trades or withdrawals from those IPs. This concerns both the global.bittrex.com web interface and API-based trades or withdrawals. To do this, click IP Whitelist in Site Settings.
https://preview.redd.it/m2klahja5zh51.jpg?width=971&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7cfb941ecb5284973baed1a2b0301459e36a0ab6

How to Add Crypto Address to Whitelist

By setting a withdrawal address, you are telling Bittrex Global to authorize withdrawals only to that address.
This concerns both the global.bittrex.com web interface and API based withdrawals.
Note that when opting into this feature, you need to specify a withdrawal address would like to withdraw funds from for every currency. To do this, click Withdrawal Whitelist in the Site Settings section. The example below shows a BTC address.
https://preview.redd.it/yrror8zd5zh51.jpg?width=974&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=179dd7da9f6e59d3fca628cbfcd2c3962562f911

Afterword

Bittrex Global is a reliable and advanced platform for trading digital assets with a respected reputation, long history, and active market presence and development nowadays. The exchange is eligible to be used globally, including the US and its territories.
The legal component of Bittrex Global is one of the most legitimate among numerous crypto-asset exchanges.
The Bittrex team has had great ambitions and managed to deliver promises and more. The exchange staff comprises forward-thinking and exceptional individuals whose success is recognized in the traditional business and blockchain sector.
Bittrex's purpose is to be the driving force in the blockchain revolution, expanding the application, importance, and accessibility of this game-changing technology worldwide.
The exchange fosters new and innovative blockchain and related projects that could potentially change the way money and assets are managed globally.
Alongside innovation, safety will always be the main priority of the company. The platform utilizes the most reliable and effective practices and available technologies to protect user accounts. Bittrex customers have always primarily been those who appreciate the highest degree of security.
Because of the way the Bittrex trading platform is designed, it can easily scale to always provide instant order execution for any number of new customers.
Bittrex supports algorithmic trading and empowers its customers with extensive APIs for more automated and profitable trading.
One of the common features which is not available on the exchange is margin trading. No leverage used however adds up to the exchange's stability and prevents fast money seekers and risky traders from entering the exchange.
Bittrex is a force of the blockchain revolution and an important entity of the emerging sector.
The full version
First part
Second part
submitted by mPrestige to revain_org [link] [comments]

Warning: Blockchain difficulty adjustment affecting price movements

Below are notable difficulty adjustments when hash rate fell and block times become slower for Bitcoin.
  1. 26 Mar 2020 [difficulty adjustment -15.95%, avg block time 11min 54secs]. On the 28th price crashed from $6674 to $6138 ( -8%).
  2. 8 Nov 2019 [difficulty adjustment -7.1%, avg block time 10min 46secs]. On the same day price crashed from $9234 to $8783 ( -4.88%).
  3. The next big adjustment was around Nov to Dec 2018 and there were 3 big adjustments with high block times.

Current situation:
We are 1 day 10 hours from the next difficulty adjustment. Projected difficulty adjustment is -5.61% (https://fork.lol/pow/retarget), which could indicate a small dip. However, take note that the date of last adjustment was the 5th and the 3rd halving was on the 11th, between the 5th to the 11th there was increased hashrate from miners trying to mine the final week of 12.5btc that offset the really slow block times after the halving. Therefore it will be the next difficulty adjustment after the one on the 20th that will completely reflect the slower block times after the halving. Currently the median block time taken on the 17th was around 14min (-28.5% difficulty adjustment).
For people who do not understand blockchain, basically with the Bitcoin 3rd halving, mining profitability fell for a lot of miners and they probably turned off their miners therefore the blockchain mining time became considerably slower which is reflected with slow transaction speed and higher fees as seen currently. Bitcoin sellers moving their BTC from wallet to an exchange are faced with slow transaction speed and therefore the sell pressure of BTC fell considerably which will attribute to the current price increase. There is a correlation between sell pressure and blockchain congestion (the size of the correlation is undetermined).
There is going to be a race. A race between BTC price hiking high enough to attract more miners to reduce avg block times versus the closing window of roughly 2 weeks before the next difficulty adjustment. If the price does not jump high enough, the next difficulty adjustment in the first week of June could signal a huge dip.
I am not an expert. I just did some research on the above and wanted to share with fellow Bitcoin compatriots so that we can tread with caution and not lose our shirts. I do not plan to short BTC but I will exit my BTC positions if I expect double digit negative difficulty adjustment in early June.
Please visit the original post here https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/gm23pe/warning_blockchain_difficulty_adjustment/
There are pictures in the original post as well as 2nd halving evidence with pics. I could not post pics here. If possible please upvote the original post, a lot of people downvote it. Not sure why people downvote it, maybe veterans attempting to hide information from newcomers to fleece them of their shirt.

Update 1:>! As of writing, I have opened a small short position on Bitcoin. Stop loss around 10k, estimated take profit around 8500. The reason is because the difficulty adjustment in the next 20 hours, even though is just -5% roughly is still significant. I direct you to look into all the difficulty adjustments in the last 2 years and you will know how rare it is. The ones I caught were all listed at the very top of the post. Since it is my first time shorting BTC, I take this as a learning opportunity so that I will have some experience to face the bigger difficulty adjustment in the first week of June. Analysis into execution, even in failure I am happy.!<
Update 2: The difficulty adjustment (DA) happened roughly 6 hours ago and the sell pressure from -6% DA did not seem to be affecting the market much. However, please take a look now at the estimation for the next DA.
On https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/ it is estimated to be -25%.
On https://fork.lol/pow/retarget estimated to be -18%.
On https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time the median block time for the last day was 16.8min.
My original proposition that the true DA of the halving can only be realized in the next DA stands and that it will be considerable. The increased sell pressure from that DA will be highly significant. That is why there is a race by current miners to get the BTC price up high enough to attract more miners to not have the DA drop too much.
Update 3: Current BTC price at $9100 ( ~39 hours after DA). Then again BTC could have dropped from all sorts of reason. However the coincidence with the DA and with all the past DA is just too high to simply shrug off as irrelevant. Anyways past result cannot predict future ones, stay safe with the trading. Will no longer check on this post.
References:
Difficulty adjustment dates taken from https://btc.com/stats/diff
Bitcoin graph history for price movement taken from coinmarketcap.
Median confirmation time (block time) taken from https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time

Credits to people who assisted the analysis:
kairepaire for pointing out faster block times between 5th-11th.
babies_eater for https://fork.lol/pow/retarget
moes_tavern_wifi for https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/
Pantamis for https://diff.cryptothis.com/
submitted by theforwardbrain to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

When should you take out a crypto loan? QDAO DeFi Use Cases.

When should you take out a crypto loan? QDAO DeFi Use Cases.
Getting a bank loan can sometimes seem like an impossible task. There is a credit history to check, collateral to provide, and other complex little details. Now, in times of the global financial crisis, banks will likely be even more cautious about giving out money.
This is why DeFi-based crypto loans are booming. The sector is still relatively new – it emerged around two and a half years ago. And since then, it has experienced rapid growth. Take a look at this graph demonstrating the cumulative lending to institutions by Genesis Lending Originations – one of the major OTC-platforms.

https://preview.redd.it/zhyovy91dam51.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=5721511496640c7e268ca2f0943fb8bb269614c2
By the end of the first quarter of 2020, the company gave out loans worth $1 billion. And that’s just Genesis Lending. Compound, the current leader among DeFi platforms currently has over $883 million in outstanding debt.
QDAO DeFi is launching a crypto loan feature as well. Users can deposit their crypto, borrow fiat and take their crypto assets back after paying the small interest rate – simple as that. The service is available to everyone with internet access and provides outstanding benefits to users.
We will demonstrate use cases for three different types of borrowers: private persons, traders and institutional investors. Most likely you’ll recognize at least one of these situations.
Disclaimer: the interest rates stated below serve only as examples and are subject to change. Always check the current rates on the QDAO DeFi Loans page.
Example 1. The borrower is a private person
This is the most basic use case in which the DeFi platform functions similar to a pawnshop.
Let’s assume that a person has already bought or is planning to buy 1 Bitcoin and is committed to holding on to it. The new rally is coming soon and this person is getting ready to cash out. However, due to some circumstances, they need fiat money now, preferably as fast as possible.
This person could sell Bitcoin. But if they don’t buy it back soon, they might lose the opportunity for profit.
Now, there is no need to choose between taking care of urgent issues and keeping the asset. Anyone can simply use crypto as collateral.
Let’s say that at the moment, Bitcoin costs $9,000. If the borrower puts it in QDAO DeFi, they can get up to 50% of crptocurrency’s value in fiat, i.e. $4,500. There is no credit check or extensive paperwork involved and all transactions are practically instant.
The borrower uses the cash however they see fit. Meanwhile, their collateral remains untouched in Custody Storage. The monthly interest is, for example, 2%. So if this person wants to get his Bitcoin back in three months, they will only need to pay $4,770. By this time, the price of their Bitcoin might have gone well above $10,000, so the deal is quite lucrative.
Example 2. The borrower is a crypto-trader
Let’s look at a serious crypto-trader who has 10 Bitcoins. The market is leaving the consolidation phase and is preparing for a rally.
They are serious about committing to a ‘HODL’ strategy and want to keep their Bitcoins. At the same time, this trader continues to make deals on exchanges to enhance future profits. After studying Ripple, they decide that it would make a nice addition to their portfolio and want to buy it. But this trader doesn’t have disposable funds to acquire enough XRP.
Since the Bitcoins are just sitting in a wallet, these assets can be used to acquire fiat resources. If the trader deposits all their Bitcoins (worth $90,000), they will get a significant boost of up to $45,000. And the best part is that the loan is in USDT, so it’s possible to just swap Tether for Ripple without extra transactions.
Let’s assume that the trader sells XRP in four months. They use part of the profit to cover the assumed interest of 2% ($3,600) then take the rest for themself and retrieve their Bitcoins.
Example 3. The borrower is an Institutional investor
There is a crypto fund or an asset management company with high net worth, long-term clients. This agency has a sizable portfolio that includes major stocks like Amazon and Apple as well as crypto assets like Bitcoin, Ripple and Ethereum.
10,000 Bitcoins are under the management of this company – so the combined asset worth is $90,000,000. According to the latest market analysis, BTC will stand at about $20,000 in 2021 and by 2025, it will stand at about $100,000. So obviously the agency should hold on to Bitcoin and the clients agree.
However, there is a very big IPO coming soon. The company has a unique opportunity to buy very promising stock. In several years, this investment will result in a very profitable exit.
But the current budget limits the volume of the possible investment. The agency is going to get more funds in two months, but the opportunity will be gone by then.
Since the company is going to be holding Bitcoin for some time anyway, it decides to use it as collateral. By depositing the assets in QDAO DeFi, it will receive a loan of up to $45,000,000. Investors use the money to buy shares. In two months, the company pays out the assumed interest ($1,800,000) and reclaims the Bitcoin.
The clients and the management are happy, because now the agency has even more great assets in the portfolio.
Example 4. The borrower does not repay the loan
Someone follows the usual process – puts 3 Bitcoins into QDAO DeFi and takes the $13,500 fiat loan.
For whatever reason, this person does not repay the debt for 7 months while the interest keeps growing. There is a sudden volatility spike and the Bitcoin price goes down to $5000 for a time, hitting the margin call mark. This is less than the original loan, so the borrower has no reason to repay it and cover the interest, since that would mean a complete loss for them. There is also no reason for QDAO DeFi to store this person’s Bitcoin.
The borrower is notified that the assets are now the property of QDAO DeFi and the loan is closed. No further legal action is taken and no penalties have been incurred for defaulting on the loan.
Conclusion
The ability to choose almost all the terms of a cash loan with QDAO DeFi provides unlimited opportunities to get money for any purpose. By planning ahead, all borrowers can get additional fiat assets to multiply their profits while still retaining everything they had before taking out the loan.
Want to be the first to hear QDAO DeFi news and updates? Visit our website and stay in touch with us on social media: Twitter, Facebook, Telegram and LINE (for the Japanese-speaking community).
submitted by QDAODeFi to u/QDAODeFi [link] [comments]

Why choose Bitcoin Cash?

Some of you might be coming to this sub, and wondering why so many people support Bitcoin Cash. This is directly answered in the pinned FAQ, and also briefly goes over the history of the sub. Now onto why Bitcoin Cash has huge potential when it comes to changing the world:
Bitcoin Cash was created with the purpose of bringing economic freedom to everyone all across the globe. With the current banking, financial, and payment systems, there are many issues when it comes to the usability of money. These issues are:
- Sending money across the globe without having to pay high fees (percentage fees), and waiting days or even weeks for your transfer to go through
- Having payment options like Visa and Mastercard that help deal with high-volume business, but having to pay a flat fee ($0.15), and a fee of 2%-3% per purchase
- Having full control over your money, so the government can't devalue your savings by printing more money for their personal interests
- Being able to use your money however you like, without having to get permission from an intermediary, middleman, or financial institution
- Being able to know how much money will be circulating at any given time in the future
- Paying high fees (4%+) for converting currency when travelling
Let's take a look at how Bitcoin Cash solves these problems:
Remittance
When it comes to sending money across the globe from one bank account to another, often times the fees will be very high because when your bank is sending money, it has to go through several intermediary banks that each take from the initial amount of money, making the process slow, and expensive. Currently, Western Union is advertising "free" transfers of currency across the globe. Seems like a good deal, right? Well here's the thing: they're tricking you into thinking that transfers are free when they're actually making money off of the exchange rate. We believe that money (digital cash) should be as frictionless as possible, and that a user shouldn't have to deal with transfer fees, and have to get permission to transfer their money from one bank to another. Currently, the fees on Bitcoin Cash are only $0.0007, and we plan on keeping them that low.
Payment Systems
When it comes to traditional payment systems, like Visa, Mastercard, and American Express, credit card companies often charge a 2%-3% fee on every transaction that takes place, and a transaction can take anywhere from 24-36 hours to confirm, and go into a merchant's bank account. These payment systems are both slow and expensive. With Bitcoin Cash, your funds are available instantly for you to spend, but if you want to take extra security measures, you can always wait ~10 minutes for a confirmation to go through.
Control Over Your Own Money
With the banking system as we currently know it, one of the biggest problems is the lack of control your have over your own money. Every year, people are forced to pay taxes to politicians only to have their money basically wasted on providing effectively nothing to them. Bitcoin Cash solves this problem by giving you full control over your money. Making a wallet does not require anyone to give ID, personal information, or anything that could potentially lead to the government having any say in what you can do with your hard-earned money. Another issue with traditional currencies is the inflationary nature of them. This is another form of taxation that doesn't appear to be as bad as taxing, but it's just a different way of taking money from the hands of citizens. When the government prints more money, your savings get devalued, meaning that the government has effectively stolen money without physically "stealing" it. With Bitcoin Cash, the inflation relies on a purely mathematical system in which the maximum number of Bitcoins will always be 21 million. With mathematical certainty, you can always be sure of the exact supply of Bitcoins based on the block number. I made a graph that helps illustrate this with >99.99997% accuracy on how many Bitcoin Cash will be in circulation based on the block height. This works for Bitcoin, and Bitcoin SV too. You can check the accuracy by putting the block height/number in the brackets of the second expression.
Currency Conversion
Have you ever travelled to another country where you had to convert to the local currency in order to be able to use it? If so, you would've realized that conversion rates can often be very high, and it is impractical to do unless you're converting a large sum of money. Our idea is to increase merchant adoption so that Bitcoin Cash can have its own economy, so it doesn't matter where in the world you are, you can always use Bitcoin Cash, and not have to worry about conversion fees. If you want to "convert" to another currency, you can always use SLP tokens that will eventually come in a variety of local fiat currencies in the near future. Tether USDT is already planning to make SLP tokens too. This is also a great alternative if you aren't sure whether you want to put your money into crypto, and want to stick with fiat instead. Think of SLP tokens as "paper" tokens on top of Bitcoin Cash that can be sent and received for fractions of a penny!
How to use Bitcoin Cash for Buying Goods and Services
Right now, there are many ways you can use Bitcoin Cash, including local usage, and online usage. If you want to see which merchants near you accept Bitcoin Cash, you can check using map.bitcoin.com and see which local merchants are accepting Bitcoin Cash. If you want to buy things online, you can use purse.io, and get 30% off on any Amazon purchase, so you contribute to the economy of growing Bitcoin Cash, and get a great deal for any item you want to buy!
TL;DR: Bitcoin Cash is sound money which you have full control over your own money, and allows you to send any amount of money, anywhere in the world, instantly, and practically for free. If you have any additional questions, feel free to comment.
Resources:
Bitcoin Inflation Graph: https://www.desmos.com/calculatolaijpbrh4s
Buy things on Amazon using Bitcoin Cash: https://purse.io/shop
purse.io chrome extension: https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/purse-shop-with-bitcoin-b/amdginnpaflghjbbdkfenpekaeifnpee
See which local merchants accept Bitcoin Cash: https://map.bitcoin.com/
Wallets with Bitcoin Cash: Electron Cash, Bitcoin.com Wallet, Exodus, Badger Wallet
Bitcoin Cash website: https://bitcoincash.org
submitted by 1MightBeAPenguin to btc [link] [comments]

The Retrospect and Prospect of the Crypto Economy——The Development and Evolution of the Consensus Mechanism (Three)

The Retrospect and Prospect of the Crypto Economy——The Development and Evolution of the Consensus Mechanism (Three)

https://preview.redd.it/45wwtygv2rc51.png?width=567&format=png&auto=webp&s=a5f51ea3c620d478231c39e32f198eb64d801897
Foreword
The consensus mechanism is one of the important elements of the blockchain and the core rule of the normal operation of the distributed ledger. It is mainly used to solve the trust problem between people and determine who is responsible for generating new blocks and maintaining the effective unification of the system in the blockchain system. Thus, it has become an everlasting research hot topic in blockchain.
This article starts with the concept and role of the consensus mechanism. First, it enables the reader to have a preliminary understanding of the consensus mechanism as a whole; then starting with the two armies and the Byzantine general problem, the evolution of the consensus mechanism is introduced in the order of the time when the consensus mechanism is proposed; Then, it briefly introduces the current mainstream consensus mechanism from three aspects of concept, working principle and representative project, and compares the advantages and disadvantages of the mainstream consensus mechanism; finally, it gives suggestions on how to choose a consensus mechanism for blockchain projects and pointed out the possibility of the future development of the consensus mechanism.
Contents
First, concept and function of the consensus mechanism
1.1 Concept: The core rules for the normal operation of distributed ledgers
1.2 Role: Solve the trust problem and decide the generation and maintenance of new blocks
1.2.1 Used to solve the trust problem between people
1.2.2 Used to decide who is responsible for generating new blocks and maintaining effective unity in the blockchain system
1.3 Mainstream model of consensus algorithm
Second, the origin of the consensus mechanism
2.1 The two armies and the Byzantine generals
2.1.1 The two armies problem
2.1.2 The Byzantine generals problem
2.2 Development history of consensus mechanism
2.2.1 Classification of consensus mechanism
2.2.2 Development frontier of consensus mechanism
Third, Common Consensus System
Fourth, Selection of consensus mechanism and summary of current situation
4.1 How to choose a consensus mechanism that suits you
4.1.1 Determine whether the final result is important
4.1.2 Determine how fast the application process needs to be
4.1.2 Determining the degree to which the application requires for decentralization
4.1.3 Determine whether the system can be terminated
4.1.4 Select a suitable consensus algorithm after weighing the advantages and disadvantages
4.2 Future development of consensus mechanism
Last lecture review: Chapter 1 Concept and Function of Consensus Mechanism plus Chapter 2 Origin of Consensus Mechanism
Last lecture review: Chapter 3 Common Consensus Mechanisms

Chapter 3 Common Consensus Mechanisms (Part 2)
Figure 6 Summary of relatively mainstream consensus mechanisms

https://preview.redd.it/2yepvjjy2rc51.png?width=567&format=png&auto=webp&s=acaed31fa6106ac2f501fe2cb284f66bb2258a0e
Source: Hasib Anwar, "Consensus Algorithms: The Root Of The Blockchain Technology"
The picture above shows 14 relatively mainstream consensus mechanisms summarized by a geek Hasib Anwar, including PoW (Proof of Work), PoS (Proof of Stake), DPoS (Delegated Proof of Stake), LPoS (Lease Proof of Stake), PoET ( Proof of Elapsed Time), PBFT (Practical Byzantine Fault Tolerance), SBFT (Simple Byzantine Fault Tolerance), DBFT (Delegated Byzantine Fault Tolerance), DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph), Proof-of-Activity (Proof of Activity), Proof-of- Importance (Proof of Importance), Proof-of-Capacity (Proof of Capacity), Proof-of-Burn ( Proof of Burn), Proof-of-Weight (Proof of Weight).
Next, we will mainly introduce and analyze the top ten consensus mechanisms of the current blockchain.
》DBFT
-Concept:
Delegated Byzantine fault tolerance. The improved Byzantine fault-tolerant algorithm makes it suitable for blockchain systems. The system consists of nodes, delegators (who can approve blocks), and speakers (who proposes the next block). It is a consensus algorithm that guarantees fault tolerance implemented inside the NEO blockchain.
-Principle:
In this mechanism, there are two participants: the professional bookkeeper "bookkeeping node" and the ordinary users in the system.
Ordinary users vote based on the proportion of holding stake to determine the bookkeeping node. When a consensus is required, a spokesperson is randomly selected from these bookkeeping nodes to draw up a plan, and then other bookkeeping nodes will vote basing on the Byzantine fault tolerance algorithm.That is, majority principle. If more than 66% of the nodes agree to the spokesperson’ plan, a consensus is reached; otherwise, the spokesperson is re-elected and the voting process is repeated.
-Representative application: Neo, etc.
》PoA
-Concept:
Proof of authority. That is, certified by some accredited accounts, these accredited accounts are called "validators". The software that the verifier runs that supports the verifier to place transactions in blocks.
-Principle:
Three conditions:
  1. The identity must be formally verified on the chain, and the information can be cross-verified in a publicly available domain;
  2. The qualifications must be difficult to obtain, so that the rights of the verification block obtained are precious enough;
  3. The authoritative inspection and procedures must be completely unified.
With PoA, every individual has the right to become a verifier, so there is an incentive to maintain the position of the verifier once acquired. By attaching a reputation to the identity, the verifier can be encouraged to maintain the transaction process. Because the verifier does not want to gain a negative reputation, it will lose its hard-won verifier status.
-Representative applications: VeChain, etc.
》DAG
-Concept:
Directed acyclic graph. Each newly added unit in the DAG is not only added to the long chain block, but added to all the previous blocks, verifying each new unit and confirming its parent unit and the parent unit of the parent unit, and gradually confirming until the genesis unit. As the hash of its parent unit is included in its own unit, the blockchains of all transactions are connected to each other to form a graph-like structure with time.
-Principle:
In the DAG network, each node can be a trader and a validator, because the transaction processing in DAG is done by the transaction node itself. Taking IOTA as an example, IOTA’s Tangle led
ger does not need to pay transaction fees while ensuring high-speed transaction processing. However, it does not mean that the transaction is free, because in this ledger, the initiation of each transaction needs to verify the other two random transactions first, and connect the transaction initiated by itself to these two transactions, so the responsibility that miners on the blockchain bear is distributed to all traders. The DAG method of processing transactions can be called asynchronous processing mode.
Figure 10 The difference between the traditional blockchain structure and the DAG structure

https://preview.redd.it/1xfssxj03rc51.png?width=553&format=png&auto=webp&s=95c382f81943c9a188a89ac6b2dadf64446589e6
-Representative applications: IOTA, etc.
》PoET
-Concept:
Proof of elapsed time. That is, it is usually used in a permissioned blockchain network. It can determine the mining rights of the block holders in the network. The permissioned blockchain network requires any prospective participants to verify their identity before joining. According to the principles of the fair lottery system, each node is equally likely to become the winner.
-Principle:
Each participating node in the network must wait for a randomly selected period, and the first node to complete the set waiting time will get a new block. Each node in the blockchain network will generate a random waiting time and sleep for a set time. The node that wakes up first, that is, the node with the shortest waiting time, wakes up and submits a new block to the blockchain, and then broadcasts the necessary information to the entire peer-to-peer network. The same process will be repeated to find the next block.
Two factors:
  1. Participating nodes will naturally select a random time in nature, rather than deliberately;
  2. The winner did complete the waiting time.
-Representative application: HyperLedger Sawtooth, etc.
》PoSV
-Concept:
Proof of stake velocity. Proposed by Reddcoin, drawing on the concept of "money circulation speed" in economics, it mainly allocates bookkeeping rights based on the coin age of nodes participating in the competition.
-Principle:
PoSV also allocates accounting rights according to the coin age of the nodes participating in the competition, but modifies the coin age calculation formula to a function of exponential decay of growth rate. Taking Reddcoin as an example, Reddcoin sets the half-life of the coin age growth rate to 1 month. Assuming that the unit token can accumulate 1CoinDay coin age on the first day, only 0.5CoinDay coin age can be accumulated on the 31st day, and only 0.25CoinDay coin age can be accumulated on the 61st day, and so on. In this way, the nodes are encouraged to use the token to conduct a transaction after holding the token for a period of time, thereby restarting the calculation of the coin age and increasing the circulation speed of the token in the network.
-Representative applications: Reddcoin, etc.
Table 2 Comparison of the advantages and disadvantages of current mainstream consensus mechanisms

https://preview.redd.it/kb04i7eh3rc51.png?width=1236&format=png&auto=webp&s=42de13bc99afaf258c0a740a6618e2d579b59100
Source: network resources
Chapter 4 Summary of the Selection and Status Quo of Consensus Mechanism
4.1 How to choose a consensus mechanism that suits you
Step 1: Determine whether the final result is important
For some applications, the end result is very important. If you are building a new payment system that can support very small amounts, it is acceptable for the transaction result to change. Similarly, if you are creating a new distributed social network, 100% guarantee that the status is updated immediately is not particularly necessary. On the contrary, if you are creating a new distributed protocol, the final result is critical to the user experience. For example, Bitcoin has a final confirmation time of about 1 hour, Ethereum has a final confirmation time of about 6 minutes, and Tendermint Core only has a final confirmation time of 1 second.
Step 2: Determine how fast the application process needs to be
If you are building a game, is it reasonable to wait 15 seconds before each action? Due to the low block processing time of Ethereum, games built on it will cause poor user experience due to Ethereum's throughput. However, the application for the transfer of housing property rights can be run on Ethereum. Use the Cosmos SDK to build an application that allows developers to freely use Tendermint Core. It has a short block processing time and high throughput, and is capable of processing 10,000 transactions per second. You can reduce the required communication overhead and speed up the application by setting the maximum number of validators for the application.
Step 3: Determine the application's demand for decentralization
Some applications such as games may not require very high censorship resistance as a by-product of decentralization. In theory, does it really matter that the validator can create a cartel in the game and reverse the transaction result for profit? If it is not important, a blockchain such as EOS may be more suitable for your needs because of the fast transaction speed and free fees. However, some applications such as autonomous banks are more powerful and decentralized. Although Ethereum is considered to be decentralized, some supporters claim that Ethereum's mining pool is an important part of centralized platform, although there are actually only 11 validators (mining pools). One of the major benefits of building your own blockchain instead of building on a smart contract platform is that you can customize the way the application completes verification. However, it is difficult to build your own blockchain, so the Cosmos SDK is very useful, you can easily build your own blockchain and customize the degree of decentralization you need.
Step 4: Determine whether the system can be terminated
If you are building a new application similar to a distributed ride-sharing service, then ensuring 24/7 service must be the first priority, even if there are occasional errors in accounting similar to transactions. One of the properties of Tendermint Core is that if there is a disagreement between network validators, the network will suspend operations instead of proceeding erroneous transactions. Applications such as decentralized exchanges require correctness at all costs-if there is a problem, it is far better to suspend trading on the decentralized exchange than there may be trading problems.
Summary: Choose a suitable consensus algorithm after weighing the advantages and disadvantages
All in all, there is no single best consensus algorithm. Each consensus algorithm has its own value and advantages. You need to have your own judgments and choices. However, by understanding the relevant processes of the consensus mechanism, including proposals and agreements, and establishing a framework to consider the types of consensus algorithms that your application may require, you should be able to make wiser decisions.
4.2 Future development of consensus mechanism
The consensus algorithm is one of the core elements of the blockchain. Although there are more than 30 consensus mechanisms listed in the article, there are still many niche consensus mechanisms that may not be discussed. As the blockchain technology is gradually known and accepted by the public, more and more newer and better consensus algorithms may appear in the future, which may be brand-new consensus algorithms, and more should be improvement and optimization version based on the current consensus algorithm.
After 2016 and 2017 years’ fast development, the current consensus algorithm does not have a recognized evaluation standard, but is generally more biased towards fairness and decentralization, as well as some technical related issues, such as energy consumption and scalability , Fault tolerance and security, etc. However, blockchain technology must be combined with requirements and application scenarios, and the consensus mechanism algorithm and incentive mechanism are inseparable. How to customize a suitable consensus mechanism according to the characteristics of your own project and optimize the current consensus mechanism will become the future direction of consensus mechanism development
CelesOS
As the first DPOW financial blockchain operating system, CelesOS adopts consensus mechanism 3.0 to break through the "impossible triangle", which can provide high TPS while also allowing for decentralization. Committed to creating a financial blockchain operating system that embraces supervision, providing services for financial institutions and the development of applications on the supervision chain, and formulating a role and consensus ecological supervision layer agreement for supervision.
The CelesOS team is dedicated to building a bridge between blockchain and regulatory agencies/financial industry. We believe that only blockchain technology that cooperates with regulators will have a real future. We believe in and contribute to achieving this goal.
📷Website
https://www.celesos.com/
📷 Telegram
https://t.me/celeschain
📷 Twitter
https://twitter.com/CelesChain
📷 Reddit
https://www.reddit.com/useCelesOS
📷 Medium
https://medium.com/@celesos
📷 Facebook
https://www.facebook.com/CelesOS1
📷 Youtube
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1Xsd8wU957D-R8RQVZPfGA
submitted by CelesOS to u/CelesOS [link] [comments]

Warning: Blockchain difficulty adjustment affecting price movement

Warning: Blockchain difficulty adjustment affecting price movement
Below are notable difficulty adjustments when hash rate fell and block times become slower for Bitcoin.
  1. 26 Mar 2020 [difficulty adjustment -15.95%, avg block time 11min 54secs]. On the 28th price crashed from $6674 to $6138 ( -8%).
  2. 8 Nov 2019 [difficulty adjustment -7.1%, avg block time 10min 46secs]. On the same day price crashed from $9234 to $8783 ( -4.88%).
  3. The next big adjustment was around Nov to Dec 2018 and there were 3 big adjustments with high block times.
  • 19 Dec 2018 [-9.56%, avg block time 11min 3secs]
  • 3 Dec 2018 [-15.13%, avg block time 11min 47secs]
  • 17 Nov 2018 [-7.39%, avg block time 10min 48secs]
  • There was huge drop off starting on 14th Nov all the way to a bottom on 14-15th Dec ($6351 to $3288 around -48%).

Current situation:
We are 1 day 10 hours from the next difficulty adjustment. Projected difficulty adjustment is -5.61% (https://fork.lol/pow/retarget), which could indicate a small dip. However, take note that the date of last adjustment was the 5th and the 3rd halving was on the 11th, between the 5th to the 11th there was increased hashrate from miners trying to mine the final week of 12.5btc that offset the really slow block times after the halving. Therefore it will be the next difficulty adjustment after the one on the 20th that will completely reflect the slower block times after the halving. Currently the median block time taken on the 17th was around 14min (-28.5% difficulty adjustment).

https://preview.redd.it/ysnv85wh0lz41.jpg?width=597&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e130b077f9dc2fc9d02666ef89e6f9249a05f535
For people who do not understand blockchain, basically with the Bitcoin 3rd halving, mining profitability fell for a lot of miners and they probably turned off their miners therefore the blockchain mining time became considerably slower which is reflected with slow transaction speed and higher fees as seen currently. Bitcoin sellers moving their BTC from wallet to an exchange are faced with slow transaction speed and therefore the sell pressure of BTC fell considerably which will attribute to the current price increase. There is a correlation between sell pressure and blockchain congestion (the size of the correlation is undetermined).
There is going to be a race. A race between BTC price hiking high enough to attract more miners to reduce avg block times versus the closing window of roughly 2 weeks before the next difficulty adjustment. If the price does not jump high enough, the next difficulty adjustment in the first week of June could signal a huge dip.
I am not an expert. I just did some research on the above and wanted to share with fellow Bitcoin compatriots so that we can tread with caution and not lose our shirts. I do not plan to short BTC but I will exit my BTC positions if I expect double digit negative difficulty adjustment in early June.

Bitcoin 2nd halving evidence:

2nd halving falls between the 5th and the 19th adjustment so it is only reflected on the 3rd of Aug difficulty adjustment ( -5.43%).

See the dip on the 3rd of August. Price fell from $600 to $533 about 11% drop.
Update 1:>! As of writing, I have opened a small short position on Bitcoin. Stop loss around 10k, estimated take profit around 8500. The reason is because the difficulty adjustment in the next 20 hours, even though is just -5% roughly is still significant. I direct you to look into all the difficulty adjustments in the last 2 years and you will know how rare it is. The ones I caught were all listed at the very top of the post. Since it is my first time shorting BTC, I take this as a learning opportunity so that I will have some experience to face the bigger difficulty adjustment in the first week of June. Analysis into execution, even in failure I am happy.!<
Update 2: The difficulty adjustment (DA) happened roughly 6 hours ago and the sell pressure from -6% DA did not seem to be affecting the market much. However, please take a look now at the estimation for the next DA.
On https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/ it is estimated to be -25%.
On https://fork.lol/pow/retarget estimated to be -18%.
On https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time the median block time for the last day was 16.8min.
My original proposition that the true DA of the halving can only be realized in the next DA stands and that it will be considerable. The increased sell pressure from that DA will be highly significant. That is why there is a race by current miners to get the BTC price up high enough to attract more miners to not have the DA drop too much.
References:
Difficulty adjustment dates taken from https://btc.com/stats/diff
Bitcoin graph history for price movement taken from coinmarketcap.
Median confirmation time (block time) taken from https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time

Credits to people who assisted the analysis:
kairepaire for pointing out faster block times between 5th-11th.
babies_eater for https://fork.lol/pow/retarget
moes_tavern_wifi for https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/
Pantamis for https://diff.cryptothis.com/
submitted by theforwardbrain to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Australians, you need to start buying as much crypto as you can.

I’m Australian, this isn’t meant to be an alarmist or sensationalist post, but the economic situation in our country is a lot more serious than most of us think.
First off, the current economic situation.
Simply put, our economy is fucked. Our housing market is dangerously overleveraged and because of policies by our government at the time, we never experienced the correction the US and most of the rest of the world did during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. And now the chickens are coming home to roost. Australians are up to their eyeballs in debt, almost half of the housing loans are interest only, it’s the reason the Reserve Bank of Australia hasn’t raised the interest rates since 2016. Because as soon as they do, even by 0.01%, tens of thousands of Australians are going to default on their mortgages. It’s no secret that our housing market is one of the most expensive in the world, and anyone living in our country already knows this. The market value of Australian homes is 4 times the GDP of the country. Our housing market is beyond the point of saving and the bubble is about to pop. And while our mainstream media is trying to convince us that it will deflate slowly, history paints a different picture.
And that’s just the start of our problems. It’s no secret that China is our biggest trading partner. We rely on China more than any other developed country in the world. And what is currently happening on the greater global stage? Our most important military ally has engaged in a trade war with China, and the effects of that trade war are starting to be felt. Chinese stocks are in freefall, and that’s only going to be the beginning of the negative effects from Trump’s hardline approach to dealing with China. It doesn’t take a genius to see that this is going to have a devastating effect on our economy.
Our biggest trading partner is having a financial gunfight with the USA, which is going to result in them buying less of our stuff. And still that isn’t the end of it. Mining is down. Commodities prices are down. Our manufacturing sector is almost dead. The only thing we have going for us at the moment is agriculture and that can’t prop up the entire economy. You wanna turn white? Read this article from last year. Our economy is teetering on the precipice.
You think I’m being dramatic? Well even the Australian MSM can no longer ignore it. With articles like this appearing almost on the daily. Our dollar is in serious trouble, anyone who knows the slightest bit about TA go look at the graphs in that article. Our country is in serious economic trouble. And we don’t know shit about it because our media is a duopoly that makes most of its money from their real estate arms. All signs are pointing to our dollar about to be worth a hell of a lot less than it currently is.
What can we do?
Since this is the crypto subreddit the solution to this impending economic shitstorm should be painfully obvious. Buy fucking Bitcoin. Not the solution for the country, for you. The country isn’t going to do shit for anyone of us except saddle us with debt and a cooked economy that is going to take generations to get out of, if ever. So we should be diversifying. Sure buying gold probably isn’t a stupid idea either, but if you think that is proof against state intervention, read a history book. Even then, gold still needs to be converted into cash to be useful, and anyone paying attention can see that Australia is gearing up for a war on cash that borders on tyrannical. The only way for us as individuals to protect our wealth at the moment is to convert it into cryptocurrency.
But Bitcoin is low at the moment!
No shit. But if you think it’s going to stay that way you are 1. In the wrong subreddit, and 2. No paying attention to the macro factors of crypto. Wall St is gearing up to enter. The bank that runs the world is getting involved. And not just American banks. Bitcoin may be low now but if you know anything about market cycles, you know that it’ll be back. Here is a good comparison of BTC a few years ago as opposed to now. It’s almost at the point where it’s irresponsible not to be buying bitcoin, and I’m not the only one that holds this opinion. Worst case scenario, bitcoin falls to USD 3k. What do you think is going to happen after that? Bitcoin and crypto aren’t going anywhere and you’re kidding yourself if you think that the value of bitcoin isn’t going to be much higher in the years to come.
Of course the RBA is telling people that Bitcoin is dead, probably because they don’t want Australians to dump their soon to be worthless fiat currency. In fact one any given day you’ll see a bunch of anti-crypto propaganda on our MSM. The same MSM that has been telling us all to buy as many houses as we can for the last 20 years. The same MSM that up until now hasn’t said shit about the direction our economy is heading in.
The writing’s on the wall people. If we keep our wealth in AUD it’s going to be worth considerably less sooner rather than later. Our property sector is going to crash, our dollar is going to crash, our personal wealth is going to be stripped away from us. If you want to avoid this, if you want to protect your wealth, ensure a future that isn’t financial hardship, then we really only have one choice. Buy bitcoin. Personally I am converting half my pay each week into BTC and just holding it. Not putting it into alts. Just btc. I’d advise you do the same as well. I understand that this sounds super risky. But if you read the articles I’ve linked to in this post I’m sure you’ll see that the only risky move is doing nothing. This isn’t a joke or a false alarm. The notion that our economy has always been fine up until now isn’t valid anymore. If you want to protect your personal wealth and purchasing power in the next few years, you really should be buying as much btc as you can while it is this low. This is what crypto is for, avoiding the negative financial downturns of specific countries. It’s a globally traded commodity that is accessible by anyone with a computer. Our economy tanking isn’t going to affect the price one bit.
I hope some of this has been useful. Listen to me, don’t listen to me, it’s your choice. But this is the digital age, there’s no excuse for ignorance anymore.
submitted by Sendmyabar to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Subreddit Stats: btc top posts from 2019-01-06 to 2020-01-05 11:19 PDT

Period: 363.85 days
Submissions Comments
Total 1000 86748
Rate (per day) 2.75 237.19
Unique Redditors 317 7747
Combined Score 194633 356658

Top Submitters' Top Submissions

  1. 31014 points, 162 submissions: Egon_1
    1. Vitalik Buterin to Core Maxi: “ok bitcoiner” .... (515 points, 206 comments)
    2. These men are serving life without parole in max security prison for nonviolent drug offenses. They helped me through a difficult time in a very dark place. I hope 2019 was their last year locked away from their loved ones. FreeRoss.org/lifers/ Happy New Year. (502 points, 237 comments)
    3. "It’s official Burger King just accepted Bitcoin Cash and GoC token as a payment option in Slovenia." (423 points, 112 comments)
    4. "HOLY SATOSHI! 😱😱 I did it! A smart card that produces valid BitcoinCash signatures. Who would love to pay with a card—to a phone?? Tap took less than a second!👟..." (368 points, 105 comments)
    5. Chrome 'Has Become Surveillance Software. It's Time to Switch' -> Brave to support BCH! (330 points, 97 comments)
    6. Gavin Andresen (2017): "Running a network near 100% capacity is irresponsible engineering... " (316 points, 117 comments)
    7. "Evidently @github has banned all the Iranian users without an ability for them to download their repositories. A service like Github must be a public good and must not be controlled by a centralized entity. Another great example of why we as a society need to make web3 a reality" (314 points, 117 comments)
    8. Roger Ver: "Bitcoin Cash acceptance is coming to thousands of physical shops in Korea" (313 points, 120 comments)
    9. Paul Sztorc: “Will people really spend $70-$700 to open/modify a lightning channel when there's an Altcoin down the street which will process a (USD-denominated) payment for $0.05 ? Many people seem to think yes but honestly I just don't get it” (306 points, 225 comments)
    10. Food For Thought (303 points, 105 comments)
  2. 29021 points, 157 submissions: MemoryDealers
    1. Bitcoin Cash is Lightning Fast! (No editing needed) (436 points, 616 comments)
    2. Brains..... (423 points, 94 comments)
    3. Meanwhile in Hong Kong (409 points, 77 comments)
    4. Ross Ulbricht has served 6 years in federal prison. (382 points, 156 comments)
    5. Just another day at the Bitcoin Cash accepting super market in Slovenia. (369 points, 183 comments)
    6. Why I'm not a fan of the SV community: My recent bill for defending their frivolous lawsuit against open source software developers. (369 points, 207 comments)
    7. History Reminder: (354 points, 245 comments)
    8. It's more decentralized this way. (341 points, 177 comments)
    9. The new Bitcoin Cash wallet is so fast!!!!! (327 points, 197 comments)
    10. The IRS wants to subpoena Apple and Google to see if you have downloaded crypto currency apps. (324 points, 178 comments)
  3. 6909 points, 37 submissions: BitcoinXio
    1. Tim Pool on Twitter: “How the fuck are people justifying creating a world like the one's depicted in Fahrenheit 451 and 1984? You realize that censorship and banning information was a key aspect of the dystopian nightmare right?” (435 points, 75 comments)
    2. The creator of the now famous HODL meme says that the HODL term has been corrupted and doesn’t mean what he intended; also mentions that the purpose of Bitcoin is to spend it and that BTC has lost its value proposition. (394 points, 172 comments)
    3. Erik Voorhees on Twitter: “I wonder if you realize that if Bitcoin didn’t work well as a payment system in the early days it likely would not have taken off. Many (most?) people found the concept of instant borderless payments captivating and inspiring. “Just hold this stuff” not sufficient.” (302 points, 66 comments)
    4. Bitfinex caught paying a company to astroturf on social media including Reddit, Twitter, Medium and other platforms (285 points, 86 comments)
    5. WARNING: If you try to use the Lightning Network you are at extremely HIGH RISK of losing funds and is not recommended or safe to do at this time or for the foreseeable future (274 points, 168 comments)
    6. Craig Wright seems to have rage quit Twitter (252 points, 172 comments)
    7. No surprise here: Samson Mow among other BTC maxi trolls harassed people to the point of breakdown (with rape threats, etc) (249 points, 85 comments)
    8. On Twitter: “PSA: The Lightning Network is being heavily data mined right now. Opening channels allows anyone to cluster your wallet and associate your keys with your IP address.” (228 points, 102 comments)
    9. btc is being targeted and attacked, yet again (220 points, 172 comments)
    10. Brian Armstrong CEO of Coinbase using Bitcoin Cash (BCH) to pay for food, video in tweet (219 points, 66 comments)
  4. 6023 points, 34 submissions: money78
    1. BSV in a nutshell... (274 points, 60 comments)
    2. There is something going on with @Bitcoin twitter account: 1/ The URL of the white paper has been changed from bitcoin.com into bitcoin.org! 2/ @Bitcoin has unfollowed all other BCH related accounts. 3/ Most of the posts that refer to "bitcoin cash" have been deleted?!! Is it hacked again?! (269 points, 312 comments)
    3. "Not a huge @rogerkver fan and never really used $BCH. But he wiped up the floor with @ToneVays in Malta, and even if you happen to despise BCH, it’s foolish and shortsighted not to take these criticisms seriously. $BTC is very expensive and very slow." (262 points, 130 comments)
    4. Jonathan Toomim: "At 32 MB, we can handle something like 30% of Venezuela's population using BCH 2x per day. Even if that's all BCH ever achieved, I'd call that a resounding success; that's 9 million people raised out of poverty. Not a bad accomplishment for a hundred thousand internet geeks." (253 points, 170 comments)
    5. Jonathan Toomim: "BCH will not allow block sizes that are large enough to wreak havoc. We do our capacity engineering before lifting the capacity limits. BCH's limit is 32 MB, which the network can handle. BSV does not share this approach, and raises limits before improving actual capacity." (253 points, 255 comments)
    6. What Bitcoin Cash has accomplished so far 💪 (247 points, 55 comments)
    7. Which one is false advertising and misleading people?! Bitcoin.com or Bitcoin.org (232 points, 90 comments)
    8. A message from Lightning Labs: "Don't put more money on lightning than you're willing to lose!" (216 points, 118 comments)
    9. Silk Road’s Ross Ulbricht thanks Bitcoin Cash’s [BCH] Roger Ver for campaigning for his release (211 points, 29 comments)
    10. This account just donated more than $6600 worth of BCH via @tipprbot to multiple organizations! (205 points, 62 comments)
  5. 4514 points, 22 submissions: unstoppable-cash
    1. Reminder: bitcoin mods removed top post: "The rich don't need Bitcoin. The poor do" (436 points, 89 comments)
    2. Peter R. Rizun: "LN User walks into a bank, says "I need a loan..." (371 points, 152 comments)
    3. It was SO simple... Satoshi had the answer to prevent full-blocks back in 2010! (307 points, 150 comments)
    4. REMINDER: "Bitcoin isn't for people that live on less than $2/day" -Samson Mow, CSO of BlockStream (267 points, 98 comments)
    5. "F'g insane... waited 5 hrs and still not 1 confirmation. How does anyone use BTC over BCH BitcoinCash?" (258 points, 222 comments)
    6. Irony:"Ave person won't be running LN routing node" But CORE/BTC said big-blocks bad since everyone can't run their own node (256 points, 161 comments)
    7. BitPay: "The Wikimedia Foundation had been accepting Bitcoin for several years but recently switched pmt processors to BitPay so they can now accept Bitcoin Cash" (249 points, 61 comments)
    8. FreeTrader: "Decentralization is dependent on widespread usage..." (195 points, 57 comments)
    9. The FLIPPENING: Fiat->OPEN Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash! Naomi Brockwell earning more via BitBacker than Patreon! (193 points, 12 comments)
    10. LN Commentary from a guy that knows a thing or 2 about Bitcoin (Gavin Andresen-LEAD developer after Satoshi left in 2010) (182 points, 80 comments)
  6. 3075 points, 13 submissions: BeijingBitcoins
    1. Last night's BCH & BTC meetups in Tokyo were both at the same restaurant (Two Dogs). We joined forces for this group photo! (410 points, 166 comments)
    2. Chess.com used to accept Bitcoin payments but, like many other businesses, disabled the option. After some DMs with an admin there, I'm pleased to announce that they now accept Bitcoin Cash! (354 points, 62 comments)
    3. WSJ: Bitfinex Used Tether Reserves to Mask Missing $850 Million, Probe Finds (348 points, 191 comments)
    4. Bitcoiners: Then and Now [MEME CONTEST - details in comments] (323 points, 72 comments)
    5. I'd post this to /Bitcoin but they would just remove it right away (also I'm banned) (320 points, 124 comments)
    6. So this is happening at the big protest in Hong Kong right now (270 points, 45 comments)
    7. /Bitcoin mods are censoring posts that explain why BitPay has to charge an additional fee when accepting BTC payments (219 points, 110 comments)
    8. The guy who won this week's MillionaireMakers drawing has received ~$55 in BCH and ~$30 in BTC. It will cost him less than $0.01 to move the BCH, but $6.16 (20%) in fees to move the BTC. (164 points, 100 comments)
    9. The Bitcoin whitepaper was published 11 years ago today. Check out this comic version of the whitepaper, one of the best "ELI5" explanations out there. (153 points, 12 comments)
    10. Two Years™ is the new 18 Months™ (142 points, 113 comments)
  7. 2899 points, 18 submissions: jessquit
    1. Oh, the horror! (271 points, 99 comments)
    2. A few days ago I caught flak for reposting a set of graphs that didn't have their x-axes correctly labeled or scaled. tvand13 made an updated graph with correct labeling and scaling. I am reposting it as I promised. I invite the viewer to draw their own conclusions. (214 points, 195 comments)
    3. Do you think Bitcoin needs to increase the block size? You're in luck! It already did: Bitcoin BCH. Avoid the upcoming controversial BTC block size debate by trading your broken Bitcoin BTC for upgraded Bitcoin BCH now. (209 points, 194 comments)
    4. Master list of evidence regarding Bitcoin's hijacking and takeover by Blockstream (185 points, 113 comments)
    5. PSA: BTC not working so great? Bitcoin upgraded in 2017. The upgraded Bitcoin is called BCH. There's still time to upgrade! (185 points, 192 comments)
    6. Nobody uses Bitcoin Cash (182 points, 88 comments)
    7. Double-spend proofs, SPV fraud proofs, and Cashfusion improvements all on the same day! 🏅 BCH PLS! 🏅 (165 points, 36 comments)
    8. [repost] a reminder on how btc and Bitcoin Cash came to be (150 points, 102 comments)
    9. Holy shit the entire "negative with gold" sub has become a shrine devoted to the guilded astroturfing going on in rbtc (144 points, 194 comments)
    10. This sub is the only sub in all of Reddit that allows truly uncensored discussion of BTC. If it turns out that most of that uncensored discussion is negative, DON'T BLAME US. (143 points, 205 comments)
  8. 2839 points, 13 submissions: SwedishSalsa
    1. With Bitcoin, for the first time in modern history, we have a way to opt out. (356 points, 100 comments)
    2. In this age of rampant censorship and control, this is why I love Bitcoin. (347 points, 126 comments)
    3. The crypto expert (303 points, 29 comments)
    4. Satoshi reply to Mike Hearn, April 2009. Everybody, especially newcomers and r-bitcoin-readers should take a step back and read this. (284 points, 219 comments)
    5. Bitcoin Cash looking good lately. (235 points, 33 comments)
    6. Roger Ver bad (230 points, 61 comments)
    7. History of the BTC scaling debate (186 points, 54 comments)
    8. MFW i read Luke Jr wants to limit BTC blocks to 300k. (183 points, 116 comments)
    9. Meanwhile over at bitcoinsv... (163 points, 139 comments)
    10. Listen people... (155 points, 16 comments)
  9. 2204 points, 10 submissions: increaseblocks
    1. China bans Bitcoin again, and again, and again (426 points, 56 comments)
    2. China bans Bitcoin (again) (292 points, 35 comments)
    3. Bitcoin Cash Network has now been upgraded! (238 points, 67 comments)
    4. So you want small blocks with high fees to validate your own on chain transactions that happen OFF CHAIN? (212 points, 112 comments)
    5. It’s happening - BTC dev Luke jr writing code to Bitcoin BTC codebase to fork to lower the block size to 300kb! (204 points, 127 comments)
    6. Former BTC maximalist admits that maxi's lied cheated and stealed to get SegWit and Lightning (201 points, 135 comments)
    7. Just 18 more months to go! (172 points, 86 comments)
    8. Bitcoin Cash ring - F*CK BANKS (167 points, 51 comments)
    9. LTC Foundation chat leaked: no evidence of development, lack of transparency (155 points, 83 comments)
    10. A single person controls nearly half of all the Lightning Network’s capacity (137 points, 109 comments)
  10. 2138 points, 12 submissions: JonyRotten
    1. 'Craig Is a Liar' – Early Adopter Proves Ownership of Bitcoin Address Claimed by Craig Wright (309 points, 165 comments)
    2. 200,000 People Have Signed Ross Ulbricht's Clemency Petition (236 points, 102 comments)
    3. Street Artist Hides $1,000 in BTC Inside a Mural Depicting Paris Protests (236 points, 56 comments)
    4. Craig Wright Ordered to Produce a List of Early Bitcoin Addresses in Kleiman Lawsuit (189 points, 66 comments)
    5. Ross Ulbricht Clemency Petition Gathers 250,000 Signatures (163 points, 24 comments)
    6. Ross Ulbricht Letter Questions the Wisdom of Imprisoning Non-Violent Offenders (160 points, 50 comments)
    7. Expert Witness in Satoshi Case Claims Dr Wright's Documents Were Doctored (155 points, 44 comments)
    8. California City Official Uses Bitcoin Cash to Purchase Cannabis (151 points, 36 comments)
    9. Money Transmitter License Not Required for Crypto Businesses in Pennsylvania (141 points, 9 comments)
    10. McAfee to Launch Decentralized Token Exchange With No Restrictions (137 points, 35 comments)

Top Commenters

  1. jessquit (16708 points, 2083 comments)
  2. Ant-n (7878 points, 1517 comments)
  3. MemoryDealers (7366 points, 360 comments)
  4. Egon_1 (6205 points, 1001 comments)
  5. 500239 (5745 points, 735 comments)
  6. BitcoinXio (4640 points, 311 comments)
  7. LovelyDay (4353 points, 457 comments)
  8. chainxor (4293 points, 505 comments)
  9. MobTwo (3420 points, 174 comments)
  10. ShadowOfHarbringer (3388 points, 478 comments)

Top Submissions

  1. The perfect crypto t-shirt by Korben (742 points, 68 comments)
  2. The future of Libra Coin by themadscientistt (722 points, 87 comments)
  3. when you become a crypto trader... by forberniesnow (675 points, 54 comments)
  4. A Reminder Why You Shouldn’t Use Google. by InMyDayTVwasBooks (637 points, 209 comments)
  5. Imagine if in 2000 Apple just sat around all day shit-talking Microsoft. Apple would have never gone anywhere. Apple succeeded because they learned from their mistakes, improved, and got better. BCH should do the same. by guyfawkesfp (552 points, 255 comments)
  6. Bitcoin made The Simpsons intro! Sorry for the potato quality by Johans_wilgat (521 points, 44 comments)
  7. Vitalik Buterin to Core Maxi: “ok bitcoiner” .... by Egon_1 (515 points, 206 comments)
  8. Can't stop won't stop by Greentoboggan (514 points, 78 comments)
  9. These men are serving life without parole in max security prison for nonviolent drug offenses. They helped me through a difficult time in a very dark place. I hope 2019 was their last year locked away from their loved ones. FreeRoss.org/lifers/ Happy New Year. by Egon_1 (502 points, 237 comments)
  10. Blockchain? by unesgt (479 points, 103 comments)

Top Comments

  1. 211 points: fireduck's comment in John Mcafee on the run from IRS Tax Evasion charges, running 2020 Presidential Campaign from Venezuela in Exile
  2. 203 points: WalterRothbard's comment in I am a Bitcoin supporter and developer, and I'm starting to think that Bitcoin Cash could be better, but I have some concerns, is anyone willing to discuss them?
  3. 179 points: Chris_Pacia's comment in The BSV chain has just experienced a 6-block reorg
  4. 163 points: YourBodyIsBCHn's comment in I made this account specifically to tip in nsfw/gonewild subreddits
  5. 161 points: BeijingBitcoins's comment in Last night's BCH & BTC meetups in Tokyo were both at the same restaurant (Two Dogs). We joined forces for this group photo!
  6. 156 points: hawks5999's comment in You can’t make this stuff up. This is how BTC supporters actually think. From bitcoin: “What you can do to make BTC better: check twice if you really need to use it!” 🤦🏻‍♂️
  7. 155 points: lowstrife's comment in Steve Wozniak Sold His Bitcoin at Its Peak $20,000 Valuation
  8. 151 points: kdawgud's comment in The government is taking away basic freedoms we each deserve
  9. 147 points: m4ktub1st's comment in BCH suffered a 51% attack by colluding miners to re-org the chain in order to reverse transactions - why is nobody talking about this? Dangerous precident
  10. 147 points: todu's comment in Why I'm not a fan of the SV community: My recent bill for defending their frivolous lawsuit against open source software developers.
Generated with BBoe's Subreddit Stats
submitted by subreddit_stats to subreddit_stats [link] [comments]

Atomic Wallet Coin is SHOCKINGLY Undervalued ~750k Market Cap


Hey, /cryptomoonshots! Its my first post here (woo!)

I’ve been lucky enough to have found QNT and LTO from this subreddit. I’ve found a third project that looks extremely interesting and I’d like to share my research here. My background is in digital marketing and this project stood out to me, especially from a marketing and biz dev perspective, which I’ll share below.

Feel free to correct the record if I’ve posted anything incorrect and I will update it (I’m a human being, I make mistakes, okay!) Additionally, the CEO is constantly answering questions on Telegram!

The project is Atomic Wallet Coin. $AWC



TL;DR IS AT THE BOTTOM. ALWAYS DYOR. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.

WHAT IS ATOMIC WALLET?

Atomic Wallet is a non custodial crypto wallet for desktop and mobile. Users can exchange and buy 300+ cryptocurrencies from a single interface. The wallet can perform cross-chain atomic swaps.

It’s an exchange built into a wallet.

Shapeshift and Changelly are partnered with Atomic to add additional currency swap pairs + fair rates. Fiat/crypto gateway is supported directly through the app.

Atomic has over 40,000 monthly active users and boasts 150k+ downloads.

The project is one of the first to migrate over to Binance chain. They are currently in the process of getting listed on Binance DEX. Half of their supply will remain ERC-20 and the other half migrated to BEP-2.
https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1119047237076541440
https://twitter.com/atomicwallet/status/1119242545706434560
https://github.com/Atomicwallet
http://atomicwallet.io

20 FULL TIME EMPLOYEES AND CEO WITH PREVIOUS TRACK RECORD

Konstantin Gladych self funded Atomic Wallet with his own funds. He previously was the CEO and co-founder of Changelly, a fully compliant crypto exchange service which has been around since 2013 and has serviced over 2 million users across the world.

“Changelly's trading algorithms are integrated into large and reputable trading platforms, such as Binance, Bittrex, Poloniex and HitBTC” - Wikipedia

Konstantin holds a PhD in data science/machine learning and left his CEO position at Changelly to develop Atomic Wallet full time.

The team currently consists of 20 full-time employees - 6 developers, 7 support and community managers, 6 marketing and business development, and 1 designer.

https://linkedin.com/in/gladkos
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Changelly
https://www.crunchbase.com/person/konstantin-gladych
https://community.binance.org/t/proposal-for-listing-atomic-wallet-token-awc-on-binance-dex/2093

APPROVED WALLET BY NEO FOUNDATION, ZCASH, GEMINI, LISK, AND OTHERS

Atomic Wallet is trusted by many household names in crypto. This does NOT mean Atomic is “partnered” with these companies, however it adds massive credibility to AWC considering they trust it enough to add it as a recommended wallet on their websites.

Take a look for yourself:

https://neo.org/client
https://z.cash/upgrade/sapling/
https://gemini.com/dolla
https://twitter.com/LiskHQ/status/1121357080173133824

95,000+ UNIQUE VISITORS PER MONTH TO ATOMICWALLET.IO


traffic statistics for atomicwallet.io [pic]

Atomic Wallet has an A+ marketing team.

Here’s a quick snapshot of how well atomicwallet.io is performing (see above). They’ve gone from 0 to 95k unique visitors per month in well under one year. Purely from Google search traffic. This doesn’t include traffic from Twitter, Facebook, and other sources. It also was during the worst bear market in crypto history, when these search terms would be at a low.

Let’s see how Atomic Wallet measures up against some well-known sites:

myetherwallet.com 802k/mo
Ripple.com 580k/mo
Ledger.com 401k/mo
Exodus.io 172k/mo
Coinmama.com 165k/mo
Shapeshift.io 149k/mo
Electrum.org 125k/mo
Atomicwallet.io 95k/mo
Freewallet.org 70.9k/mo
Trustwallet.com (Binance owned) 24k/mo

Atomic Wallet has virtually caught up to or exceeded many of it’s competitors in terms of traffic in well under a year. Turning this traffic into downloads/new users is child’s play. It’s one of the reasons this company with 20+ employees is already profitable in just a few short months.

So, how is this site getting so many visitors?

Here are a few search terms that Atomicwallet.io ranks on page 1 for on Google.

Open up a new tab, visit Google.com and see for yourself!

“EOS wallet”
“ETH wallet”
“BNB wallet”
“Buy Bitcoin”
“Ethereum wallet”
“XRP wallet”
“Ripple wallet”
“DASH wallet”

+27,100+ additional search terms that bring in a total of 94,700 visitors per month. Purely. from. Google. Search.

traffic statistics for atomicwallet.io [pic]

$AWC TOKENOMICS

Atomic’s website does a thorough job of explaining the tokenomic details of the $AWC coin. The tokenomics mirror the standard use-cases you would expect from an exchange token (Bibox, KCS, etc.) The CEO recently expressed his interest in adding staking rewards for AWC holders. He is also exploring the idea of having IEO-type listings for Atomic Wallet users/holders in the future. New projects could theoretically debut directly on their platform and be traded against $AWC, similar to how Bitmax runs IEOs.

Currently, 90% of the circulating supply is locked up and Konstantin has announced his intention to buy back and burn tokens with company profits.

Here are a few of the use cases for $AWC:

The team is looking to make $AWC directly tradeable from the app in the future.

With thousands of new Atomic Wallet users per month, this is an incredibly exciting feature.

https://atomicwallet.io/token

FINAL THOUGHTS

Atomic Wallet will grow to an active user base in the millions. Every crypto holder needs a wallet. Atomic provides a user-friendly wallet for newbies getting their feet wet in crypto. Most newbs aren’t going out and buying a LedgeTrezor right away. Building an exchange directly into the wallet provides a safe and easy way to trade crypto assets.

The number of cryptocurrency users and addresses are growing exponentially. Atomic wallet was created during the bear market. They are perfectly positioned to take a massive share of the increasingly competitive crypto wallet market during a bull market/alt coin season.

In my opinion, they’re on track to be the #1 desktop/mobile multi-crypto wallet.

As someone who is experienced in search engine/digital marketing, these guys have an ace marketing team. Even beating or ranking just below Coinbase for many competitive Google search terms in just a few short months.

I have zero doubts that they will blow past every single one of their roadmap goals, especially as Bitcoin continues to climb in value and more people start buying crypto.

Despite short term fluctuations in price, Atomic will continue to onboard thousands of new users every single month. The traffic numbers don’t lie. The Google search rankings don’t lie. Atomic will need to be wise about how they monetize this traffic.

The company is already profitable. The CEO is well connected and has proved he is highly competent in creating and successfully running a crypto exchange.

I have a lot more info to share about this project if there is interest, I’ll post a part 2 or a follow-up in the comments.

A profitable company of this caliber with 20 full-time employees isn’t justified at a ~$750k market cap.

https://atomicwallet.io/roadmap-for-2019
https://medium.com/@mccannatron/12-graphs-that-show-just-how-early-the-cryptocurrency-market-is-653a4b8b2720

ADDITIONAL LINKS AND FURTHER READING

  1. https://atomicwallet.io/
  2. https://twitter.com/atomicwallet
  3. https://t.me/atomicwalletchat
  4. https://github.com/Atomicwallet
  5. https://www.coinbureau.com/review/atomic-wallet/
  6. https://community.binance.org/t/proposal-for-listing-atomic-wallet-token-awc-on-binance-dex/2093

TL;DR


Currently at 750k market cap

2.7MM market cap is a 3.6x from here.
5M market cap is a 6.6x from here.
8MM market cap is a 10.6x from here.

DYOR.

submitted by key_mnk_ to CryptoMoonShots [link] [comments]

Information and FAQ

Welcome to the official IOTA subreddit.
If you are new you can find lots of information here, in the sidebar and please use the search button to see if your questions have been asked before. Please focus discussion on IOTA technology, ecosystem announcements, project development, apps, etc. Please direct help questions to /IOTASupport, and price discussions and market talk to /IOTAmarkets.
Before getting started it is recommended to read the IOTA_Whitepaper.pdf. I also suggest watching these videos first to gain a better understanding.
IOTA BREAKDOWN: The Tangle Vs. Blockchain Explained
IOTA tutorial 1: What is IOTA and some terminology explained

Information

Firstly, what is IOTA?

IOTA is an open-source distributed ledger protocol launched in 2015 that goes 'beyond blockchain' through its core invention of the blockless ‘Tangle’. The IOTA Tangle is a quantum-resistant Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG), whose digital currency 'iota' has a fixed money supply with zero inflationary cost.
IOTA uniquely offers zero-fee transactions & no fixed limit on how many transactions can be confirmed per second. Scaling limitations have been removed, since throughput grows in conjunction with activity; the more activity, the more transactions can be processed & the faster the network. Further, unlike blockchain architecture, IOTA has no separation between users and validators (miners / stakers); rather, validation is an intrinsic property of using the ledger, thus avoiding centralization.
IOTA is focused on being useful for the emerging machine-to-machine (m2m) economy of the Internet-of-Things (IoT), data integrity, micro-/nano- payments, and other applications where a scalable decentralized system is warranted.
More information can be found here.

Seeds

A seed is a unique identifier that can be described as a combined username and password that grants you access to your IOTA.
Your seed is used to generate the addresses and private keys you will use to store and send IOTA, so this should be kept private and not shared with anyone. If anyone obtains your seed, they can generate the private keys associated with your addresses and access your IOTA.

Non reusable addresses

Contrary to traditional blockchain based systems such as Bitcoin, where your wallet addresses can be reused, IOTA's addresses should only be used once (for outgoing transfers). That means there is no limit to the number of transactions an address can receive, but as soon as you've used funds from that address to make a transaction, this address should not be used anymore.
Why?
When an address is used to make an outgoing transaction, a random 50% of the private key of that particular address is revealed in the transaction signature, which effectively reduces the security of the key. A typical IOTA private key of 81-trits has 2781 possible combinations ( 8.7 x 10115 ) but after a single use, this number drops to around 2754 ( 2 x 1077 ), which coincidentally is close to the number of combinations of a 256-bit Bitcoin private key. Hence, after a single use an IOTA private key has about the same level of security as that of Bitcoin and is basically impractical to brute-force using modern technology. However, after a second use, another random 50% of the private key is revealed and the number of combinations that an attacker has to guess decreases very sharply to approximately 1.554 (~3 billion) which makes brute-forcing trivial even with an average computer.
Note: your seed is never revealed at at time; only private keys specific to each address.
The current light wallet prevents address reuse automatically for you by doing 2 things:
  1. Whenever you make an outgoing transaction from an address that does not consume its entire balance (e.g. address holds 10 Mi but you send only 5 Mi), the wallet automatically creates a new address and sends the change (5 Mi) to the new address.
  2. The wallet prevents you from performing a second outgoing transaction using the same address (it will display a “Private key reuse detected!” error).
This piggy bank diagram can help visualize non reusable addresses. imgur link
[Insert new Safe analogy].

Address Index

When a new address is generated it is calculated from the combination of a seed + Address Index, where the Address Index can be any positive Integer (including "0"). The wallet usually starts from Address Index 0, but it will skip any Address Index where it sees that the corresponding address has already been attached to the tangle.

Private Keys

Private keys are derived from a seeds key index. From that private key you then generate an address. The key index starting at 0, can be incremented to get a new private key, and thus address.
It is important to keep in mind that all security-sensitive functions are implemented client side. What this means is that you can generate private keys and addresses securely in the browser, or on an offline computer. All libraries provide this functionality.
IOTA uses winternitz one-time signatures, as such you should ensure that you know which private key (and which address) has already been used in order to not reuse it. Subsequently reusing private keys can lead to the loss of funds (an attacker is able to forge the signature after continuous reuse).
Exchanges are advised to store seeds, not private keys.

FAQ

Buying IOTA

How do I to buy IOTA?

Currently not all exchanges support IOTA and those that do may not support the option to buy with fiat currencies.
Visit this website for a Guide: How to buy IOTA
or Click Here for a detailed guide made by 450LbsGorilla

Cheapest way to buy IOTA?

You can track the current cheapest way to buy IOTA at IOTA Prices.
It tells you where & how to get the most IOTA for your money right now. There's an overview of the exchanges available to you and a buying guide to help you along.
IOTAPrices.com monitors all major fiat exchanges for their BTC & ETH rates and combines them with current IOTA rates from IOTA exchanges for easy comparison. Rates are taken directly from each exchange's official websocket. For fiat exchanges or exchanges that don't offer websockets, rates are refreshed every 60 seconds.

What is MIOTA?

MIOTA is a unit of IOTA, 1 Mega IOTA or 1 Mi. It is equivalent to 1,000,000 IOTA and is the unit which is currently exchanged.
We can use the metric prefixes when describing IOTA e.g 2,500,000,000 i is equivalent to 2.5 Gi.
Note: some exchanges will display IOTA when they mean MIOTA.

Can I mine IOTA?

No you can not mine IOTA, all the supply of IOTA exist now and no more can be made.
If you want to send IOTA, your 'fee' is you have to verify 2 other transactions, thereby acting like a minenode.

Storing IOTA

Where should I store IOTA?

It is not recommended to store large amounts of IOTA on the exchange as you will not have access to the private keys of the addresses generated.

Wallets

GUI Desktop (Full Node + Light Node)
Version = 2.5.6
Download: GUI v2.5.6
Guide: Download/Login Guide
Nodes: Status
Headless IRI (Full Node)
Version = 1.4.1.4
Download: Mainnet v1.4.1.4
Guide:
Find Neighbours: /nodesharing
UCL Desktop/Android/iOS (Light Node)
Version = Private Alpha Testing
Website: iota-ucl (Medium)
Android (Light Node)
Version = Beta
Download: Google Play
iOS (Light Node)
Version = Beta Testing
Website: https://iota.tools/wallet
Paper Wallet
Version = v1.3.6
Repo: GitHub
Seed Vault
Version = v1.0.2
Repo: GitHub7

What is a seed?

A seed is a unique identifier that can be described as a combined username and password that grants you access to your wallet.
Your seed is used to generate the addresses linked to your account and so this should be kept private and not shared with anyone. If anyone obtains your seed, they can login and access your IOTA.

How do I generate a seed?

You must generate a random 81 character seed using only A-Z and the number 9.
It is recommended to use offline methods to generate a seed, and not recommended to use any non community verified techniques. To generate a seed you could:

On a Linux Terminal

use the following command:
 cat /dev/urandom |tr -dc A-Z9|head -c${1:-81} 

On a Mac Terminal

use the following command:
 cat /dev/urandom |LC_ALL=C tr -dc 'A-Z9' | fold -w 81 | head -n 1 

With KeePass on PC

A helpful guide for generating a secure seed on KeePass can be found here.

With a dice

Dice roll template

Is my seed secure?

  1. All seeds should be 81 characters in random order composed of A-Z and 9.
  2. Do not give your seed to anyone, and don’t keep it saved in a plain text document.
  3. Don’t input your seed into any websites that you don’t trust.
Is Someone Going To Guess My IOTA Seed?
What are the odds of someone guessing your seed?
  • IOTA seed = 81 characters long, and you can use A-Z, 9
  • Giving 2781 = 8.7x10115 possible combinations for IOTA seeds
  • Now let's say you have a "super computer" letting you generate and read every address associated with 1 trillion different seeds per second.
  • 8.7x10115 seeds / 1x1012 generated per second = 8.7x10103 seconds = 2.8x1096 years to process all IOTA seeds.

Why does balance appear to be 0 after a snapshot?

When a snapshot happens, all transactions are being deleted from the Tangle, leaving only the record of how many IOTA are owned by each address. However, the next time the wallet scans the Tangle to look for used addresses, the transactions will be gone because of the snapshot and the wallet will not know anymore that an address belongs to it. This is the reason for the need to regenerate addresses, so that the wallet can check the balance of each address. The more transactions were made before a snapshot, the further away the balance moves from address index 0 and the more addresses have to be (re-) generated after the snapshot.

What happens if you reuse an address?

It is important to understand that only outgoing transactions reveal the private key and incoming transactions do not. If you somehow manage to receive iotas using an address after having used it previously to send iotas—let's say your friend sends iotas to an old address of yours—these iotas may be at risk.
Recall that after a single use an iota address still has the equivalent of 256-bit security (like Bitcoin) so technically, the iotas will still be safe if you do not try to send them out. However, you would want to move these iotas out eventually and the moment you try to send them out, your private key will be revealed a second time and it now becomes feasible for an attacker to brute-force the private key. If someone is monitoring your address and spots a second use, they can easily crack the key and then use it to make a second transaction that will compete with yours. It then becomes a race to see whose transaction gets confirmed first.
Note: The current wallet prevents you from reusing an address to make a second transaction so any iotas you receive with a 'used' address will be stuck. This is a feature of wallet and has nothing to do with the fundamental workings of IOTA.

Sending IOTA

What does attach to the tangle mean?

The process of making an transaction can be divided into two main steps:
  1. The local signing of a transaction, for which your seed is required.
  2. Taking the prepared transaction data, choosing two transactions from the tangle and doing the POW. This step is also called “attaching”.
The following analogy makes it easier to understand:
Step one is like writing a letter. You take a piece of paper, write some information on it, sign it at the bottom with your signature to authenticate that it was indeed you who wrote it, put it in an envelope and then write the recipient's address on it.
Step two: In order to attach our “letter” (transaction), we go to the tangle, pick randomly two of the newest “letters” and tie a connection between our “letter” and each of the “letters” we choose to reference.
The “Attach address” function in the wallet is actually doing nothing else than making an 0 value transaction to the address that is being attached.

Why is my transaction pending?

IOTA's current Tangle implementation (IOTA is in constant development, so this may change in the future) has a confirmation rate that is ~66% at first attempt.
So, if a transaction does not confirm within 1 hour, it is necessary to "reattach" (also known as "replay") the transaction one time. Doing so one time increases probability of confirmation from ~66% to ~89%.
Repeating the process a second time increases the probability from ~89% to ~99.9%.

How do I reattach a transaction.

Reattaching a transaction is different depending on where you send your transaction from. To reattach using the GUI Desktop wallet follow these steps:
  1. Click 'History'.
  2. Click 'Show Bundle' on the 'pending' transaction.
  3. Click 'Reattach'.
  4. Click 'Rebroadcast'. (optional, usually not required)
  5. Wait 1 Hour.
  6. If still 'pending', repeat steps 1-5 once more.

Does the private key get revealed each time you reattach a transaction?

When you use the reattach function in the desktop wallet, a new transaction will be created but it will have the same signature as the original transaction and hence, your private key will not revealed a second time.

What happens to pending transactions after a snapshot?

IOTA Network and Nodes

What incentives are there for running a full node?

IOTA is made for m2m economy, once wide spread adoption by businesses and the IOT, there will be a lot of investment by these businesses to support the IOTA network. In the meantime if you would like to help the network and speed up p2p transactions at your own cost, you can support the IOTA network by setting up a Full Node.
Running a full node also means you don't have to trust a 3rd party light node provider. By running a full node you get to take advantage of new features that might not be installed on 3rd party nodes.

How to set up a full node?

To set up a full node you will need to follow these steps:
  1. Download the full node software: either GUI, or headless CLI for lower system requirements and better performance.
  2. Get a static IP for your node.
  3. Join the network by adding 7-9 neighbours.
  4. Keep your full node up and running as much as possible.
A detailed user guide on how to set up a VTS IOTA Full Node from scratch can be found here.

How do I get a static IP?

To learn how to setup a hostname (~static IP) so you can use the newest IOTA versions that have no automated peer discovery please follow this guide.

How do I find a neighbour?

Are you a single IOTA full node looking for a partner? You can look for partners in these place:

Resources

You can find a wiki I have been making here.
More to come...
If you have any contributions or spot a mistake or clarification, please PM me or leave a comment.
submitted by Boltzmanns_Constant to Iota [link] [comments]

Elaborating on Datadash's 50k BTC Prediction: Why We Endorse the Call

As originally published via CoinLive
I am the Co-Founder at CoinLive. Prior to founding Coinlive.io, my area of expertise was inter-market analysis. I came across Datadash 50k BTC prediction this week, and I must take my hats off to what I believe is an excellent interpretation of the inter-connectivity of various markets.
At your own convenience, you can find a sample of Intermarket analysis I've written in the past before immersing myself into cryptos full-time.
Gold inter-market: 'Out of sync' with VIX, takes lead from USD/JPY
USD/JPY inter-market: Watch divergence US-Japan yield spread
EUUSD intermarket: US yields collapse amid supply environment
Inter-market analysis: Risk back in vogue, but for how long?
USD/JPY intermarket: Bulls need higher adj in 10-y US-JP spread
The purpose of this article is to dive deeper into the factors Datadash presents in his video and how they can help us draw certain conclusions about the potential flows of capital into crypto markets and the need that will exist for a BTC ETF.
Before I do so, as a brief explainer, let's touch on what exactly Intermarket analysis refers to:
Intermarket analysis is the global interconnectivity between equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, and any other asset class; Global markets are an ever-evolving discounting and constant valuation mechanism and by studying their interconnectivity, we are much better positioned to explain and elaborate on why certain moves occur, future directions and gain insights on potential misalignments that the market may not have picked up on yet or might be ignoring/manipulating.
While such interconnectivity has proven to be quite limiting when it comes to the value one can extract from analyzing traditional financial assets and the crypto market, Datadash has eloquently been able to build a hypothesis, which as an Intermarket analyst, I consider very valid, and that matches up my own views. Nicolas Merten constructs a scenario which leads him to believe that a Bitcoin ETF is coming. Let's explore this hypothesis.
I will attempt to summarize and provide further clarity on why the current events in traditional asset classes, as described by Datadash, will inevitably result in a Bitcoin ETF. Make no mistake, Datadash's call for Bitcoin at 50k by the end of 2018 will be well justified once a BTC ETF is approved. While the timing is the most challenging part t get right, the end result won't vary.
If one wishes to learn more about my personal views on why a BTC ETF is such a big deal, I encourage you to read my article from late March this year.
Don't Be Misled by Low Liquidity/Volume - Fundamentals Never Stronger
The first point Nicholas Merten makes is that despite depressed volume levels, the fundamentals are very sound. That, I must say, is a point I couldn't agree more. In fact, I recently wrote an article titled The Paradox: Bitcoin Keeps Selling as Intrinsic Value Set to Explode where I state "the latest developments in Bitcoin's technology makes it paradoxically an ever increasingly interesting investment proposition the cheaper it gets."
However, no article better defines where we stand in terms of fundamentals than the one I wrote back on May 15th titled Find Out Why Institutions Will Flood the Bitcoin Market, where I look at the ever-growing list of evidence that shows why a new type of investors, the institutional ones, looks set to enter the market in mass.
Nicholas believes that based on the supply of Bitcoin, the market capitalization can reach about $800b. He makes a case that with the fundamentals in bitcoin much stronger, it wouldn't be that hard to envision the market cap more than double from its most recent all-time high of more than $300b.
Interest Rates Set to Rise Further
First of all, one of the most immediate implications of higher rates is the increased difficulty to bear the costs by borrowers, which leads Nicholas to believe that banks the likes of Deutsche Bank will face a tough environment going forward. The CEO of the giant German lender has actually warned that second-quarter results would reflect a “revenue environment [that] remains challenging."
Nicholas refers to the historical chart of Eurodollar LIBOR rates as illustrated below to strengthen the case that interest rates are set to follow an upward trajectory in the years to come as Central Banks continue to normalize monetary policies after a decade since the global financial crisis. I'd say, that is a correct assumption, although one must take into account the Italian crisis to be aware that a delay in higher European rates is a real possibility now.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/947/content_2018-05-30_1100.png)
Let's look at the following combinations: Fed Fund Rate Contract (green), German 2-year bond yields (black) and Italy's 10-year bond yield (blue) to help us clarify what's the outlook for interest rates both in Europe and the United States in the foreseeable future. The chart suggests that while the Federal Reserve remains on track to keep increasing interest rates at a gradual pace, there has been a sudden change in the outlook for European rates in the short-end of the curve.
While the European Central Bank is no longer endorsing proactive policies as part of its long-standing QE narrative, President Mario Draghi is still not ready to communicate an exit strategy to its unconventional stimulus program due to protectionism threats in the euro-area, with Italy the latest nightmare episode.
Until such major step is taken in the form of a formal QE conclusion, interest rates in the European Union will remain depressed; the latest drastic spike in Italy's benchmark bond yield to default levels is pre-emptive of lower rates for longer, an environment that on one hand may benefit the likes of Deutsche Bank on lower borrowing costs, but on the other hand, sets in motion a bigger headache as risk aversion is set to dominate financial markets, which leads to worse financial consequences such as loss of confidence and hence in equity valuations.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/948/content_2018-05-30_1113.png)
Deutsche Bank - End of the Road?
Nicholas argues that as part of the re-restructuring process in Deutsche Bank, they will be facing a much more challenging environment as lending becomes more difficult on higher interest rates. At CoinLive, we still believe this to be a logical scenario to expect, even if a delay happens as the ECB tries to deal with the Italian political crisis which once again raises the question of whether or not Italy should be part of the EU. Reference to an article by Zerohedge is given, where it states:
"One day after the WSJ reported that the biggest German bank is set to "decimate" its workforce, firing 10,000 workers or one in ten, this morning Deutsche Bank confirmed plans to cut thousands of jobs as part of new CEO Christian Sewing's restructuring and cost-cutting effort. The German bank said its headcount would fall “well below” 90,000, from just over 97,000. But the biggest gut punch to employee morale is that the bank would reduce headcount in its equities sales and trading business by about 25%."
There is an undeniably ongoing phenomenon of a migration in job positions from traditional financial markets into blockchain, which as we have reported in the past, it appears to be a logical and rational step to be taken, especially in light of the new revenue streams the blockchain sector has to offer. Proof of that is the fact that Binance, a crypto exchange with around 200 employees and less than 1 year of operations has overcome Deutsche Bank, in total profits. What this communicates is that the opportunities to grow an institution’s revenue stream are formidable once they decide to integrate cryptocurrencies into their business models.
One can find an illustration of Deutsche Bank's free-fall in prices below:
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/946/content_2018-05-30_1052.png)
Nicholas takes notes of a chart in which one can clearly notice a worrying trend for Italian debt. "Just about every other major investor type has become a net seller (to the ECB) or a non-buyer of BTPs over the last couple of years. Said differently, for well over a year, the only marginal buyer of Italian bonds has been the ECB!", the team of Economists at Citi explained. One can find the article via ZeroHedge here.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/953/content_2018-05-30_1451.png)
Equities & Housing to Suffer the Consequences
Nicholas notes that trillions of dollars need to exit these artificially-inflated equity markets. He even mentions a legendary investor such as George Soros, who has recently warned that the world could be on the brink of another devastating financial crisis, on lingering debt concerns in Europe and a strengthening US dollar, as a destabilizing factor for both the US's emerging- and developed-market rivals.
Ray Dalio, another legend in the investing world and Founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, "has ramped up its short positions in European equities in recent weeks, bringing their total value to an estimated $22 billion", MarketWatch reports.
Nicholas extracts a chart by John Del Vecchio at lmtr.com where it illustrates the ratio between stocks and commodities at the lowest in over 50 years.
As the author states:
"I like to look for extremes in the markets. Extremes often pinpoint areas where returns can be higher and risk lower than in other time periods. Take the relationship between commodities and stocks. The chart below shows that commodities haven not been cheaper than stocks in a generation. We often hear this time it is different” to justify what’s going on in the world. But, one thing that never changes is human nature. People push markets to extremes. Then they revert. "
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/954/content_2018-05-30_1459.png)
Bitcoin ETF the Holy Grail for a Cyclical Multi-Year Bull Run
It is precisely from this last chart above that leads Nicholas to believe we are on the verge of a resurgence in commodity prices. Not only that but amid the need of all this capital to exit stocks and to a certain extent risky bonds (Italian), a new commodity-based digital currency ETF based on Bitcoin will emerge in 2018.
The author of Datadash highlights the consideration to launching a Bitcoin ETF by the SEC. At CoinLive, our reporting of the subject can be found below:
"Back in April, it was reported that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has put back on the table two Bitcoin ETF proposals, according to public documents. The agency is under formal proceedings to approve a rule change that would allow NYSE Arca to list two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) proposed by fund provider ProShares. The introduction of an ETF would make Bitcoin available to a much wider share of market participants, with the ability to directly buy the asset at the click of a button, essentially simplifying the current complexity that involves having to deal with all the cumbersome steps currently in place."
Nicholas refers to the support the Bitcoin ETF has been receiving by the Cboe president Chris Concannon, which is a major positive development. CoinLive reported on the story back in late March, noting that "a Bitcoin ETF will without a doubt open the floodgates to an enormous tsunami of fresh capital entering the space, which based on the latest hints by Concannon, the willingness to keep pushing for it remains unabated as the evolution of digital assets keeps its course."
It has been for quite some time CoinLive's conviction, now supported by no other than Nicholas Merten from Datadash, that over the next 6 months, markets will start factoring in the event of the year, that is, the approval of a Bitcoin ETF that will serve as a alternative vehicle to accommodate the massive flows of capital leaving some of the traditional asset classes. As Nicholas suggests, the SEC will have little choice but to provide alternative investments.
Bitcoin as a Hedge to Lower Portfolios' Volatility
Last but not least, crypto assets such as Bitcoin and the likes have an almost non-existent correlation to other traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities, which makes for a very attractive and broadly-applicable diversification strategy for the professional money as it reduces one’s portfolio volatility. The moment a Bitcoin ETF is confirmed, expect the non-correlation element of Bitcoin as a major driving force to attract further capital.
Anyone Can Be Wrong Datadash, But You Won't be Wrong Alone
Having analyzed the hypothesis by Nicholas Merten, at CoinLive we believe that the conclusion reached, that is, the creation of a Bitcoin ETF that will provide shelter to a tsunami of capital motivated by the diversification and store of value appeal of Bitcoin, is the next logical step. As per the timing of it, we also anticipate, as Nicholas notes, that it will most likely be subject to the price action in traditional assets. Should equities and credit markets hold steady, it may result in a potential delay, whereas disruption in the capital market may see the need for a BTC ETF accelerate. Either scenario, we will conclude with a quote we wrote back in March.
"It appears as though an ETF on Bitcoin is moving from a state of "If" to "When."
Datadash is certainly not alone on his 50k call. BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes appears to think along the same line.
On behalf of the CoinLive Team, we want to thank Nicholas Merten at Datadash for such enlightening insights.
submitted by Ivo333 to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

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